Opinion

Brian Feeney: Anti-Brexit coalition must defeat DUP

Brian Feeney

Brian Feeney

Historian and political commentator Brian Feeney has been a columnist with The Irish News for three decades. He is a former SDLP councillor in Belfast and co-author of the award-winning book Lost Lives

Arlene Foster's DUP have backed Brexit
Arlene Foster's DUP have backed Brexit Arlene Foster's DUP have backed Brexit

The taoiseach was correct on Monday when he said, deal or no deal, the British will have to return quickly to the negotiating table with the EU to hammer out terms of trade and other relationships.

There will be this difference however; those talks will take place after a British general election on which Johnson is betting the house.

This present crisis is a critical juncture in British politics which has been coming for over forty years. It’s been all about the Conservative party; it still is and will be after an election. At various times such as 1992-3 and 2014-15 it looked as if the party might split on Europe and finally it has. Some fondly believe that after Brexit the pieces can be glued together again but that’s impossible. The Europhobes have won and expelled the Europhiles. Now what the Europhobes intend to do is win an election and wipe out their rivals on the far right in the Brexit party, the successor to UKIP.

In the view of Johnson, and his personal Svengali, Cummings, that is the only way to ensure the continuing domination of the Conservative party in English politics – English politics you note.

In order to achieve that victory in the upcoming election Johnson and Cummings hope to resurrect the combination that voted Leave in 2016. They and their followers believe that English politics has divided along new lines and will remain divided along those lines for years. Johnson plans to make the election about Brexit and portray his opponents as preventing Brexit happening, thereby bringing out the Leave voters of 2016 in force and outmanoeuvre the Brexit party. As some of those who have been expelled from the Conservative party say, Johnson has made the Conservative party into the Brexit party. They have a point; Johnson has done that to sweep the boards in England.

It’s going to be nip and tuck. Opinion polls show Johnson well ahead of Labour, anything from 7 per cent to 14 per cent, both figures which suggest majorities. However, it’s not as simple as that. First, there’s going to be a lot of organised tactical voting in England where Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem voters opt for the candidate most likely to defeat a Brexiteer Conservative. The notion of a uniform swing across Britain has gone.

Newspapers and websites are already advising voters which party to vote for to get rid of a Brexiteer. Secondly, Johnson’s Conservatives are going to get massacred in Scotland. The latest YouGov poll shows the SNP gaining fifteen seats.

Be that as it may, Johnson is correct in believing that England is where it matters. Scotland has 59 seats, Wales 40, but England 533. Now here’s the thing. London has 73 seats of which Labour has 46, while the Conservatives have a mere 19. They’re going to lose most of them. Who to? Many believe the Lib Dems.

What the polls point to is a parliament with the Conservatives again the biggest party (285?), Labour next, but with substantial numbers of SNP (50?), Lib Dems (30?) and others yet again preventing an overall majority. The bad news is that once more the DUP could play a crucial role if they side with the Conservatives, which they will. Let’s face it, who else would go near them?

All of which makes it essential that parties here agree on tactical voting to minimise the DUP vote. It’s a no brainer. After all, the UUP will agree a pact with the DUP as they always do, overt or unspoken, while Sinn Féin, the SDLP and the Alliance party all sit on their high horses, holier than thou. There’s not much point in burnishing your credentials as an anti-Brexit party while nominating candidates who ensure that the poisonous alignment between the DUP and Conservatives, so injurious to people on this island, continues to block progress in negotiations as it has done since 2016.