One of the reasons, perhaps the main reason, why there is so much confusion about what’s going to happen in the UK at Halloween is because the media takes the statements of the British government and its ministers seriously.
All governments lie, but this British’s government’s current position is based entirely on one big lie, namely that it’s possible to make a deal with Brussels before October 31. It isn’t. All ministers know that, and so do all journalists, nevertheless they tie themselves in knots analysing a delusion.
Yet, because it’s the government and prime minister who keep making mendacious claims the media, and especially the BBC, feel obliged to take them seriously. Everything becomes clear if you turn every pronouncement on its head, especially the pronouncements of the EU-illiterates in the Cabinet like Dominic Raab and Stephen Barclay.
Take the leaked document about impending catastrophe when there’s no deal. We’re told by Michael Gove, a man adept at twisting himself into a pretzel to avoid a straight answer, that it’s ‘old’. The contemptible DUP, a party which has never uttered a single word of its own devising on Brexit, immediately parroted, ‘it’s old’. It’s not, unless you count three weeks as old. Everything will be in order in 70 days time, so the stuff in ‘Operation Yellowhammer’ won’t apply. Oh yes it will because, guess what, everything will not be in order in 70 days. See? Just turn everything Johnson and his team of nodding dogs say on its head. After all, he hand-picked them to be nodding dogs.
There’ll be a deal by Halloween. No, there won’t. There can’t be. Here’s why. The British have made no proposals. The European Council hasn’t given its negotiators a new mandate, nor will they before the new European Council, with a new president, meets in November. Besides, there’s no time. Even if the EU were to remove the backstop, which they won’t, what would replace it? Even then you’re left with Theresa May’s deal which would not be passed. More simply however, even if the British ever come up with proposals, even if there were to be a deal, which there won’t be, Johnson couldn’t get it through parliament. Why? He hasn’t got a majority for any deal, that’s why. He needs an election to get a majority.
Johnson’s forthcoming trips to Berlin and Paris (the only forthcoming thing about him) will be hyped in the British media. He’ll tell Johnny Foreigner to back off or there’ll be no deal. Huh. Translate as, ‘give me what I want or I’ll jump out the window.’ Remember Theresa May sent the EU-illiterate David Davis round European capitals in 2017 and…nathin. Individual EU leaders don’t negotiate, but even if they did Macron is contemptuous of Johnson and openly exasperated with the British, so… nathin.
The simple truth is this. There are only two options: no deal or an extension of the October 31 deadline in order to have a general election. Even if Westminster voted against no deal, the UK would still crash out at Halloween with no deal; that’s the law. Forget a government of national unity. The House of Commons can’t unite on anything. If a government of national unity were cobbled together they couldn’t agree on whether to have Brexit or what kind of Brexit they want to have.
Johnson can get away with all the lies and delusions because the opposition to him is pathetic. They have no leader, certainly not Jeremy Corbyn who doesn’t know what he wants himself. Some want a second referendum, others want a new deal, but what kind? Some just want to bring down Johnson, but then what?
For Johnson by contrast it’s simple. He only wants one thing – an election – because his present position in parliament is unsustainable. In effect he has no majority so he must get one, do or die. Nothing else matters.
