Opinion

Newton Emerson: The end of Theresa May's premiership is bad timing for Northern Ireland

Newton Emerson

Newton Emerson

Newton Emerson writes a twice-weekly column for The Irish News and is a regular commentator on current affairs on radio and television.

Newton Emerson
Newton Emerson Newton Emerson

The final collapse of Theresa May’s premiership is bad timing for Northern Ireland, with the prime minister and the taoiseach due to pass verdict on Stormont talks next week.

It is even worse timing for the DUP, whose confidence and supply deal with the Conservatives is due for renewal next month.

Who should this deal be renewed with? May could linger on just long enough for the task but she will lack all authority and motivation to be generous.

Her successor will need a deal but will be forewarned and forearmed against the sort of humiliation the DUP dished out to May at the outset.

Then there is a small matter of what to negotiate. The current agreement was built around the DUP backing whatever Brexit the government could get. That has not worked and been the cause of much calamity. To renew confidence and supply, the DUP and the Tories will have to agree in some detail on what Brexit they want, while keeping it credible the EU will offer it.

What could possibly go wrong?

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Tanaiste Simon Coveney, or “Simon Coventry” as the Guardian renamed him this week, has given an upbeat assessment of the progress of Stormont talks. Speaking to journalists in Belfast after meeting all five main Northern Ireland parties, the Fine Gael politician said there will “now be intensification of efforts” to restore power-sharing.

Yet at almost precisely that moment, Fine Gael’s general secretary was sending out a note to the party’s chairs and whips on every local authority in the Republic, informing them of a new policy that “entering into power-sharing with Sinn Féin is not allowed.”

In a final punchline, Coventry then rushed back to Dublin to resume demanding an invisible border.

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New Sinn Féin mayor of Belfast John Finucane has welcomed Prince Charles and President Higgins to the city, in an opportune first engagement as an elected representative. He had been informed of a loyalist death threat hours before.

The bigger opportunity for Finucane comes from his position as a Troubles victim, giving him the moral authority to reach out beyond a victims sector split into rival camps. He may do so, or represent one camp, or choose not to have his career defined by the issue, as has been the media’s focus to date. All these options are legitimate but the authority to reach out is precious and has arrived at a much-needed time. Few prominent politicians in Northern Ireland are Troubles victims and even fewer have suffered a comparable experience to Finucane. The most notable exception is DUP leader Arlene Foster, who has remained within her camp.

While that is her right and nobody has the right to demand otherwise, there is no doubt that in terms of political leadership it has been a wasted opportunity.

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Former DUP leader Peter Robinson caused a sensation this time last year when he delivered a lecture on border polls and the Stormont stalemate, after receiving an honorary professorship at Queen’s University Belfast.

Former taoiseach Bertie Ahern picked up the same honour this week and gave a lecture on the same topics. Only a crowded news agenda kept him out of the headlines. Ahern proposed that Sinn Féin remove “the threat of a border poll” in return for DUP support for an Irish language act, to build “cautious trust” and restore devolution.

Whatever the merits of this idea, it is becoming notable that suggestions to set aside the Good Friday Agreement provisions for a border poll are coming exclusively from nationalists. Nothing Robinson suggested last year would have breached the terms of the agreement.

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The University College Union, which represents academics, has accused unionists of threatening free expression after the TUV and DUP complained to Queen’s about imbalanced views among staff. Both parties said they were simply engaging in debate.

There is quite a difference between debating with people and trying to have them silenced but politicians and academics both forgot that long ago. This latest row began when DUP former minister Nelson McCausland wrote a newspaper column attacking Queen’s Professor John Brewer for being anti-Brexit.

Brewer is himself well known to the media for his prescriptive view that what he calls “conflict journalism” should be replaced with “peace journalism.”

When reporting academic disputes, it is customary to cite Henry Kissinger’s quip that the reason they are so bitter is that nothing is at stake.

In this instance, Kissinger’s quote on the Iran-Iraq war also comes to mind: “It’s a pity both sides can’t lose.”

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Rumours of schools introducing four-day weeks or half days to save money have been reported, following warnings the education system is disintegrating in Stormont’s absence.

While problems are real and should not be downplayed, reducing school hours should be recognised as a lobbying tactic rather than a crisis measure. Wages are 80 per cent of a school’s costs and all salaried staff would continue to be paid in full. Savings on electricity and heating would be inconsequential. The real purpose of half-days and four-day weeks is to apply pressure on politicians by disrupting the lives of working parents. It is, in practice, a management-led strike.

newton@irishnews.com