Opinion

Allison Morris: Irish border being used as currency in Brexit shambles

Theresa May arrives at Stormont House in Belfast on Wednesday.
Theresa May arrives at Stormont House in Belfast on Wednesday. Theresa May arrives at Stormont House in Belfast on Wednesday.

Theresa May paid little attention to Northern Ireland during the early, post Brexit referendum days, even avoiding the region during her much publicised tour of the devolved nations ahead of triggering Article 50.

Maybe it was just too complicated to deal with, maybe she forgot we existed, I wonder how often in the long sleepless nights since has she wished that was true.

No one can doubt she is a political leader who feels the burden of responsibility and shoulders that with an unwavering sense of duty.

Unlike her predecessor David Cameron, who promised a referendum and then walked away when the result took an unexpected turn, you get the impression this is a captain who would stoically and willingly go down with her ship.

And so it was with a sense of duty but armed with few answers that she arrived in Belfast this week.

As standard the weather was particularly wet and gloomy, as with all such visits the rain seems to follow senior Tory politicians around.

She is a prime minister without majority support, she leads a minority coalition party that publicly devours itself on a regular basis, without thought for public image or consequences.

And yet she has survived against all odds, she remains in the post, some would argue because no one else wants it, but nonetheless she is a leader during one of the most politically momentous periods in history.

The Irish border and her dependent relationship with the DUP have been a constant fly in the ointment of her attempts to negotiate a least worst-case scenario Brexit.

Who would have thought that once again we here find ourselves at the centre of a global news story?

Thankfully this time not because people are losing their lives, but because of the determination of the people here to ensure that we are never again in that place.

That major international new corporations are sending their political correspondents here and not their war reporters is a positive.

But as the clock ticks towards March 29 the prospects for a no deal increase daily, the prime minister knows this and she has listened to, but potentially not heard, the concerns of the business and farming sectors about what that would mean economically.

In December Mrs May hosted representatives of the business community from Northern Ireland in Downing Street. They gave her withdrawal agreement a cautious welcome and thanked her for thinking of them. They were among her few allies at that time.

And we shouldn't underestimate the significance of that vocal support, for in Northern Ireland, where political patronage often holds the purse strings of investment, few have ever felt emboldened enough to speak out against the DUP.

What would happen if the assembly were to return and the DUP were to take the financial portfolios?

Would those who took a public stance be punished in terms of government investment?

When Mrs May said the deal was the only deal on offer and the backstop was not negotiable, people believed her.

That she backed down under pressure from the DUP and the hardliners in her party, shows on one hand the power the unionist party currently have in Westminster and on the other how little they’ve listened to the employers and investors in their own constituencies.

Mrs May’s visit this week, the fact that she was committed to spending 24 hours here, indicated that there was a possible breakthrough, that she had a workable solution in mind.

A week on from receiving parliament's backing for ‘plan B’ it was hoped that she may be ready to present some new ideas to break the deadlock, that we were to finally hear the details of these ‘alternative arrangements’ for the border.

We didn’t hear that at all, it was a carefully crafted speech that tried to be all things to all people, that was jam-packed with soundbites and clichés, but lacking in detail and substance.

It will not have reassured those who have asked for certainties, nor explained how she plans to avoid the backstop and get the approval of the EU.

Meanwhile, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar was in Brussels to discuss preparations for a no deal Brexit, indicating a renegotiation is still off the table. He'll follow Mrs May to Belfast on Friday to meet with the main political parties.

His message hasn't changed, Ireland's support from the the other EU member states throughout this shambles has remained consistent.

Whether they will hold their nerve while Theresa May loses hers remains to be seen.

Will we be protected, will they honour their commitments to protect Irish citizens here, or will we be used as currency to barter with?

Time is running out and we'll soon know the answer to all those questions and more.