Opinion

Alex Kane: Don't expect DUP and Sinn Fein to show any signs of compromise

Alex Kane

Alex Kane

Alex Kane is an Irish News columnist and political commentator and a former director of communications for the Ulster Unionist Party.

Alex Kane
Alex Kane Alex Kane

Well, here we are, about to begin our third year without an assembly or executive.

All-party talks are due to begin again fairly soon, but with the Brexit deadline (March 29) and local council elections (May 2) hanging over their heads it seems unlikely that the parties - particularly the DUP and SF - will be in any mood for compromise. In her new year's message Arlene Foster had this to say re the elections: ''This will be an opportunity for the people in the west of Northern Ireland to give their verdict on their nationalist and republican controlled councils. Repeatedly, republicans have failed to recognise the unionist minorities in those areas. We will continue to highlight this issue. Those who shout the loudest about respect and equality must start to practice what they preach.'' Hmm. That sounds like fighting talk.

Meanwhile, Michelle O'Neill, in her Christmas message, said this: ''I believe progress is possible. I am hopeful we can end the denial of rights in the north and restore our power-sharing institutions on the basis of equality. The prejudice felt by women, the LGBT community, Irish speakers and victims is incompatible with the Good Friday Agreement. Through all the chaos, uncertainty and challenges that face us, that peace agreement must be protected. It's time we finally give people the kind of government, society and future that they deserve and can have confidence in. A new Assembly and a new type of politics is possible. Let's make 2019 a year of real and lasting peace.'' Hmm. That sounds like more fighting talk.

Those two messages sum up the chasm. Foster believes Sinn Féin has no interest in respect and equality for unionists in the areas they control. O'Neill believes that unionists have no interests in respect and equality for anyone, anywhere. Quite how they bridge that chasm is unclear. If Mrs May's Withdrawal Agreement - with backstop still in place - gets through, the DUP will be in no mood to talk. If the UK leaves without a deal, Sinn Féin will be in no mood to talk. I sense no mood within unionism for any shifting on opposition to the sort of Irish Language Act Sinn Féin endorses: and I sense no mood within nationalism/republicanism for rowing back on an ILA just to make life easier for the DUP.

The secretary of state still seems keen on the idea of an 'outsider' to chair the new talks (and I'm pretty sure that at least a couple of people have been sounded out). The argument, I suppose, is that everything could be run across the chair, thereby avoiding the he-said-she-said disagreement which collapsed the process last February. That could just as easily be done by the secretary of state herself; or by my cat, if Mrs Bradley is otherwise occupied.

The only difference an 'outsider' would have made last time would have been to facilitate a less acrimonious collapse of the process. There is no evidence to suggest their presence would have delivered a deal.

I'm not sure what's happening in the background, but I hope that key figures in the civil service - albeit not from Northern Ireland - are ploughing through the evidence from the RHI inquiry and learning the necessary lessons. Have they any reason to believe that the problems uncovered are not confined to a 'rogue' department? Is it possible that the habits and precedents of that department are commonplace in every other department? Even if the next round of talks produced a deal isn't it possible that the dysfunction exposed by the inquiry still infects every other department? Ministers and spads come and go: the civil service goes on and on and on. How do we know senior staff aren't taking bad habits and practices from one department to the next?

I suppose the biggest question for the DUP - and it will have an impact on their approach to talks - is whether Foster survives. It seems likely that the council elections will be a re-run of the DUP vs SF battles we saw in the assembly and general elections in 2017. If the DUP takes a hit - and it doesn't have to be huge to be significant -Foster's survival comes to the fore. If the RHI report is 'difficult' for her, her survival remains at the fore. She definitely wouldn't survive Mrs May getting the Withdrawal Agreement - complete with backstop - through the Commons in two weeks.

You'll not be surprised to learn that I think - as I have done for two years - a breakthrough is unlikely anytime soon. Neither the DUP (with RHI and Mrs May occupying their minds) nor Sinn Féin (with no wriggle room on an ILA and the possibility of a serious challenge in May from an SDLP/Fianna Fáil coalition) are in the mood for budging. Crucially, there is no pressure from their grassroots for a deal, either. So, expect the same-old same-old and the same election results, too.