Opinion

Alex Kane: What the Brexiteers really fear is a second referendum

Alex Kane

Alex Kane

Alex Kane is an Irish News columnist and political commentator and a former director of communications for the Ulster Unionist Party.

Jacob Rees-Mogg arriving at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in Whitehall, London, to discuss Brexit proposals. Picture by Stefan Rousseau, Press Association
Jacob Rees-Mogg arriving at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in Whitehall, London, to discuss Brexit proposals. Picture by Stefan Rousseau, Press Association Jacob Rees-Mogg arriving at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in Whitehall, London, to discuss Brexit proposals. Picture by Stefan Rousseau, Press Association

There are some interesting ideas in the European Reform Group's (ERG) 19 page document issued on Wednesday (their long-overdue response to the jibe from those in the Remain camp who say that they didn't have an alternative to Theresa May's Chequers plan).

The problem is that it is dead in the water unless she is prepared to incorporate it into her policy and present it to the EU negotiators as part and parcel of the UK government's official negotiating position.

At the time of writing--Wednesday afternoon--there has been no official response from Downing Street. Of course, the document gives the prime minister enormous problems. I haven't heard one key Remainer suggest that the ERG paper addresses and resolves all of the outstanding problems. No-one from the EU seems particularly interested. I'm pretty sure the paper wouldn't command majority support from the Conservative backbenches. And, given the present arithmetic, it seems very unlikely, even if she incorporated the proposals into her own plan, that May could be certain of a Commons majority. Which is probably why Michael Gove--once very close to Boris Johnson and Rees-Mogg--has urged the party to unite behind their 'excellent' leader and press on with the Chequers plan.

Rees-Mogg, chairman of the ERG, was probably well aware that there wouldn't be much traction: and I don't suppose he really cares. Boris Johnson - who would have been briefed about the date of publication some time ago - also realised there would be no traction: and that's why he put the boot into May so brutally in last week's Mail on Sunday. Both men know that the exit strategy they want isn't happening. They know, too, that neither one of them, even if they toppled and replaced May, would be able to deliver anything better.

So, what's this all about? Well, they fear - and they could be right, as it happens - that May is engineering a Commons vote on the final deal that could result in both defeat and a second referendum. They believe that her strategy - supported by key figures on the backbenches and Central Office - is geared towards keeping the United Kingdom in the EU. As Margaret Thatcher would put it, they think that Mrs May is 'frit' when it comes to Brexit. They believe that she has softened everything so much that, at best, the UK will be so close to the EU that it may as well be recognised as a member; or worse, that her tactics will inevitably lead to a second vote--a vote they're now sure would go fairly comfortably in Remain's favour.

It now looks as if they are prepared to move in for the kill. Wednesday's paper sets down their boldest marker yet. It will be distributed to all party members and discussed at many fringe events during the party conference at the end of the month. Neither Johnson nor Rees-Mogg, nor any other leading Brexiteer, will be addressing the main conference; but they will be packing out fringe events and using every opportunity to undermine her personal authority and pick apart her exit strategy. How they are received, compared with how well her speech goes down on October 3, will determine if there will be a formal leadership challenge. 50 MPs--enough to trigger an election--turned up at a meeting on Tuesday evening; and left the very clear message that they were ready for a contest.

The difficulty is that time is running out. The UK is earmarked to leave the EU at the end of next March. A new leader would find it extraordinarily difficult to conclude negotiations with the EU; leaving the prospect of departure without a deal much more likely. But having said that, it is also possible that a parliamentary ambush--sprung with the support of some Remain Conservative MPs - could force a vote on whether or not a no-deal outcome is acceptable to the Commons. It could become very messy.

Here's the question, then: are we now looking at the final phase of the civil war which has dominated internal Conservative politics for a generation? In other words, it's not so much about ditching May to get a better exit deal; as ditching May in order that the party can be reshaped and remoulded in the image of little-Englanders Johnson and Rees-Mogg. If the UK leaves the EU it will change the nature and core vote of the Conservative party. If it stays, it will also change the nature and core vote. That's what Johnson and Rees-Mogg are preparing for.