It's hard to remember a time when an Ian Paisley wasn't the MP for North Antrim.
Ian Snr first won the seat in 1970; standing as a Protestant Unionist and beating the sitting Ulster Unionist, Henry Clark, by 2,679 votes. He held the seat in the February 1974 election--standing under the DUP banner--and increased his majority to 27,631. He held it in every subsequent election between 1974 and 2005. In 2010 Ian Jnr won the seat and held it in 2015 and 2017--when he increased his share of the vote to almost 60 per cent and a majority of 20,643.
North Antrim is the jewel in the DUP's crown. In a brief conversation with Dr Paisley--it would have been late 1999/early 2000--he told me: "If the DUP loses North Antrim it will have already lost any other seat it held." I didn't disagree with him. Which is why I think it would take an upset of monumental proportions for the seat to be lost if there is a by-election in the autumn.
That said, upsets are possible. While it still strikes me as unlikely that the DUP--who suspended Paisley on Tuesday--would refuse to confirm him as their candidate, it is possible that the election could be a contest between Brand Paisley (standing as an independent) and Brand DUP (putting up their own candidate).
There are people within the DUP's leadership team who would like to get rid of Paisley. They regard him as a very loose cannon and this certainly isn't the first time that he has brought trouble to their doorstep. But he's a Paisley and that still counts for a lot in North Antrim. It also counts for a lot among that still significant element of the grassroots which has been with the DUP since the early 1970s. Throwing him to the wolves would be a huge risk for the party, particularly if he held the seat under his own steam. And Arlene Foster has enough problems on her plate without picking a fight with Paisley.
The other thing Paisley has in his favour is, who would stand against him if a by-election is forced? Sources across the constituency suggest that it should be easy enough to get the signatures required to trigger the by-election (although the likelihood of his winning it reasonably comfortably may deter people from signing the recall petition), but then what? Sinn Féin won't win the seat. And nor will the SDLP, UUP or Alliance. The TUV might fancy its chances--hoping to pick up DUP/UUP votes, along with some non-voters who want to register their disapproval of Paisley; but that would require a huge shift of votes since last year's general election. There is talk of an 'agreed' candidate, but it would take someone pretty special to win support from all of the non-DUP, anti-Paisley factions.
What would happen in the event of an independent Paisley versus an 'official' DUP candidate is more difficult to gauge. I really can't see huge numbers of present non-DUP voters opting for a DUP candidate (who would also be pro-Brexit) just to get rid of Paisley. And I also think his personal vote would see off the challenge from the DUP. So again, it looks like he wins in that scenario, too.
It was suggested to me on Tuesday that the only way of making the contest, if there is one, interesting, would be if the only other candidate was a pro-Remain one. North Antrim voted Leave by 30,938 to 18,782 on a 65 per cent turnout; but it is possible that the fallout and uncertainty surrounding Theresa May's exit strategy might encourage people to a by-election who wouldn't otherwise be interested. But again, who would the candidate be in that circumstance? However you cut this electoral cookie it looks like Ian holds the seat.
In a column for the Irish News on January 12 I made the case for Barry McElduff's resignation, even though Sinn Féin had already suspended him at that point: 'It was and remains a resignation issue. Sinn Féin should have insisted upon it.' And while the circumstances are different--although both involve gross stupidity--I believe the DUP should also insist on Paisley's resignation.
It wouldn't stop him standing as an independent if there is an election, but at least he wouldn't be standing with their endorsement. It wouldn't stop him remaining an MP if there isn't an election, but at least he wouldn't be their MP.
