Opinion

Tom Kelly: Theresa May trapped in a Brexit problem of her own making

Tom Kelly

Tom Kelly

Tom Kelly is an Irish News columnist with a background in politics and public relations. He is also a former member of the Policing Board.

Prime minister Theresa May, pictured during her visit to Belleek on Thursday, will have to call the DUP's bluff on Brexit. Picture by Ronan McGrade/Pacemaker Press
Prime minister Theresa May, pictured during her visit to Belleek on Thursday, will have to call the DUP's bluff on Brexit. Picture by Ronan McGrade/Pacemaker Press Prime minister Theresa May, pictured during her visit to Belleek on Thursday, will have to call the DUP's bluff on Brexit. Picture by Ronan McGrade/Pacemaker Press

"I don't think in my 35 years as MP that I have even known such a truly unpleasant and deeply uncertain time in the House."

So said Tory icon, Sir Nicholas Soames, son of a former MP, grandson of Winston Churchill and great-grandson of Lord Randolph Churchill, who allegedly coined the notable phrases "Ulster will fight and Ulster will be right" and "play the Orange card".

That Orange card has resurfaced - but more of that later.

During recent debates Soames's comments reflected the sentiments of many exasperated members of the House of Commons.

It is clear that Brexit has poisoned the fabric of British politics. Its core has been hollowed out.

The exchanges on the Tory benches are lethal. Conservative MP Anna Soubry has been outstandingly honest and forthright in slaying the posh boys in her wake.

But the language emerging from the debates is far from parliamentary. Rees-Mogg and Johnson are particularly nauseating; one is condescending and the other is clownish.

It's doubtful if anyone can say what the will of the British people was or is in relation to Brexit because it was a binary question asked in an emotionally-charged environment.

The main issue filtered down to one of immigration, which now those who propagated it like Michael Gove regret.

Personally speaking, I put the blame for the Brexit shambles at the door of former prime minister David Cameron, who cut and run after launching the referendum grenade unto the public.

Many ordinary voters are now perplexed - even frustrated - that the debate is still dragging on without clarity.

Certainly the reaction to the news that the European Health Insurance Card may disappear for UK travellers post-Brexit hasn't been well received.

So when it was announced that British drivers and holidaymakers - some seven million of them - may need additional permits to drive in Europe, another unintended consequence of Brexit was made real for many ordinary people.

And the so-called free trade deals, as articulated by ousted agriculture secretary Owen Paterson, will come at heavy price for British agri-food businesses and farmers.

The claims that the UK will flourish under WTO rules is a nonsense because Donald Trump is tearing up that rule book and imposing tariffs in a trade war - tariffs described by arch Brexiter, now UK trade secretary, Liam Fox as 'stupid and illegal'.

Trade deals with America or Australia will end up flooding the UK market with cheaper but genetically treated meat and grains.

For those concerned with immigration they need to understand trading arrangements with India or China may also entail the granting of tens of thousands of work and study visas to allow nationals from these countries to enter the UK.

To her credit, Mrs May is sincere about not wanting a hard border on the island of Ireland.

She also wants to protect the integrity of the Belfast Agreement - and who could blame her.

Her problem is two-fold and of her own making. She called an election, gambled and lost.

Secondly, she wedded herself to the DUP in one-sided confidence and supply agreement.

The DUP are ideologically driven against the EU. One of their former ministers boasted that he would pay any price to leave the EU no matter what the economic consequences.

Not all in the DUP are so anti-EU or economically reckless but the overall sentiment in that party is toxic on the subject.

The so-called Orange card is often overrated. When it is played, it turns sour very quickly. It is also electorally damaging to the Tories in their own constituencies.

The Prime Minister has yet to call the DUP's bluff but that time will come.

Remember Thatcher for all her unionist credentials delivered on the Anglo-Irish Agreement. May will have to show similar resolve.

Crashing out of the EU will end the life of this Tory government and a Corbyn premiership is not so fanciful.

A no deal scenario gives the British Chancellor sleepless nights. The DUP and Tory toff MPs may be like kamikaze pilots but Tory grandees and backers like power.

Crashing out is also a disaster for Ireland but the EU will be there to cushion it. There will be no such cushion in Northern Ireland.

But let us be confident that there will be a backstop of sorts, a customs union by another name and very close regulatory alignment.

The UK will still be out of the EU. As Star Trek's Mr Spock said: "It's life Jim - but not as we know it."