When I was a child I lay awake at night and worried about a third world war. The prospect of nuclear annihilation seemed very real in the late sixties and early seventies.
Those were nights when it would not have been unusual to hear the sound of sniper-fire outside my bedroom window, or the distant rumble of a bomb. Lurgan was in the midst of its own existential crisis.
Little did it occur to me that I was in greater danger from warring factions outside by own front door than I was from cold warriors in the United States and Soviet Union.
One of the things about fear is its irrationality. There is often little logic to our assessment of risk. Many of us get nervous flying, yet we are 10 times more likely to die going out for a walk.
As it turned out, we survived the cold war. Indeed, it could be argued that cold war warrior Ronald Reagan was the architect of its demise, helped – it must be said – by the courageous Mikhail Gorbachev who realised that the USSR was no longer sustainable.
When he was elected, much the same was said about Reagan as is said about Donald Trump. Back then, you’d be more likely to trust a baboon with the nuclear button than the president of the United States. But Reagan was one of those old-style republicans who did not believe in big government.
His philosophy was to do as little as possible. And he did that very well. He also surrounded himself with people who were better than him. He did not have the type of ego you would expect of a Hollywood star.
Karl Marx said: “History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce.”
You only have to look at the players today to see the truth of Marx’s observation. I do not need to reach for adjectives to describe the current US president. He tweets eloquently for himself. Let me just say, I have never been more scared of anyone in high office than I am of Trump.
In the run up to last week’s bombings in Syria by US, French and British forces, commentators were saying seriously for the first time in a generation that we were looking a third world war in the face.
And the secretary general of the United Nations has no doubt that we are now in the midst of a new cold war – without the safeguards that previously existed, namely the back channels that ensured the two sides were still talking even when rattling their sabres.
As it is, the conflict in Syria is a world war by proxy. The US, Britain and France on one side, the Russians and Iranians on the other. The risk is that a wrong move there could massively escalate rivalries.
There are enough Russians on the ground to fear the consequences of a rogue missile.
The current problems in the middle east are the result of generations of meddling by imperialist powers – not least Britain and France. Their secret agreement in the midst of the first world war to carve up the Ottoman empire shaped the region. Ironically, the Sykes-Picot agreement had the blessing of the Russians (albeit under Putin’s tsarist predecessor Nicholas II).
The western powers and the Russians have used the region’s dictators Gaddafi, Saddam Hussein, and the Assads, father and son, and various rebel armies, as pawns in their bid for global influence – often shifting sides when it suited them.
Given that context, and the current state of play between the US and Russia, it is wise to be sceptical of the motives for the bombing. The allies’ actions do not suggest any real concern for the people of Syria, or the wider region, who have been used as hostages in a chain of a misguided interventions.
In addition, Theresa May’s decision to join the action, without the authority of Parliament, is an affront to democracy. The craven support of the DUP for the action comes as no surprise. May’s justification for British participation in the bombing does not stand up. She should be held in contempt of Parliament.
The only place for world conflict to be played out is on the floor of the United Nations. We have lost sight of the old adage that jaw-jaw is better than war war. And the people who have paid the price for that are the innocent citizens of middle eastern nations. We have blood on our hands.
