Opinion

Alex Kane: DUP is not in a comfortable place at the moment

Alex Kane

Alex Kane

Alex Kane is an Irish News columnist and political commentator and a former director of communications for the Ulster Unionist Party.

Alex Kane
Alex Kane Alex Kane

Just about everybody seemed to be talking about the Good Friday Agreement on Tuesday.

Bill Clinton, Tony Blair, George Mitchell and Jonathan Powell were flown in. David Trimble, Seamus Mallon, John Alderdice, Bertie Ahern and Monica McWilliams were wheeled out. The national and international media treated us to profiles, documentaries and 'specials.'

Commentators and journalists toured the studios recalling their memories of that cold day 20 years ago.

Indeed, the only people not really talking about it were Arlene Foster and Michelle O'Neill: which is hardly surprising, since they were confined to the audience sidelines rather than occupying centre stage.

A grateful people weren't thronging the highways and byways to cheer the 'champions of peace.' There were no street parties. Crocodiles (is it ok to reclaim and use that word again?) of schoolchildren weren't trooping up to Stormont to pay tribute to the elderly men and women who had paved the path to the utopia created by their efforts. We weren't all wearing some form of turquoise representing a blend of orange and green.

The only good news - courtesy of a member of the Slugger O'Toole audience who came to hear me and Allison Morris on Tuesday evening - is that we haven't had to endure an intervention from Bono in the last 20 years.

It was a day in which a celebratory cake and candles played no part. The contributions from the key players were muted and low key; although Seamus Mallon was very angry and David Trimble was tetchy.

Peter Robinson was a wonderfully acerbic Banquo at the feast: ''So, for many of us who in 1998 or later opposed the Belfast Agreement, this casual act of conferring honour and admiration on a failed and rejected agreement is not only an absurdity but excludes the vast majority of the unionist community who would otherwise join a united community chorus expressing support for a broader peace and reconciliation objective which is democratically negotiated and delivers a shared and peaceful society.'' Hmm. I can't wait until the 20th anniversary of the deal struck by the DUP and Sinn Féin in 2007: yes, that deal - the one currently lying in tatters.

Now then, if Robinson's view is shared - which I think it is - by the DUP, it seems unlikely that there'll be a meeting of minds between them and Sinn Féin on 'returning to the values and principles of the GFA.'

My own sense is that the polarisation between both those parties, and between unionism and nationalism generally, is now centred on increasing numbers of unionists opposing a deal with Sinn Féin and increasing numbers of nationalists opposing an internal deal with the DUP. Which means that an executive with just those two parties (plus Claire Sugden invited back to justice) is not going to work. An all-party executive may not work, either, yet it seems the best option. Maybe the only option.

Amid all the noisy hoopla of Tuesday it went almost unnoticed that Secretary of State Karen Bradley indicated that she wanted movement on a new round of talks next week. She has to say something, I suppose, if only to stop people asking why, almost five months after advice to her predecessor, James Brokenshire, MLAs are still being paid their full salaries.

But those talks can only begin if the DUP says, loudly, clearly and unambiguously, that it is prepared to sign off on an Irish Language Act. Will they? Could Arlene Foster stand over it? Would the DUP remain intact while its MLAs had their salaries cut and some of them decided to look for work in the 'real' world? Would the same negotiating team return to the talks or would she be forced to replace some who were regarded as too liberal and 'flexible.' How does she get back to talks without it looking like some sort of climb down?

The DUP is not in a comfortable place at the moment. The RHI saga is taking its toll and raising very serious questions about the competence of a handful of people; while also shining a light on what looks like the 'culture of the cabal.'

For all the talking-up of the relationship with the Conservatives, many in the DUP grassroots don't really trust the government and would prefer to have departmental control again in Northern Ireland.

A number of key players in the DUP are aware that the loss of a unionist majority in the Assembly and the ongoing impasse are damaging their reputation for strength and competence. And increasing numbers of them are very concerned about both the constitutional and economic impact of Brexit. Or, as one put it to me: "It seems that we are dangerously dependent on Theresa May to pull us out of this hole."

It's all very well for Peter Robinson to dismiss the GFA as a 'career-ending disaster' for David Trimble: yet, as it stands, Arlene Foster (his anointed successor) could also be on the road to a career-ending disaster.