Watching Mrs May return to Brussels on Friday for her early morning press conference with EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker I was immediately reminded of the duck test.
The test goes -‘If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it’s probably a duck.’ Well that is of course unless you are in the DUP because they get to call it - Anas platyrhynchos. And Sinn Féin may get to call their version – Anas boschas. If like me you are not an ornithologist, zoologist or a madcap political zealot you will be relieved to know that both are binomial scientific names for yes, you have guessed it, a duck!
The wordsmiths in Brussels, Dublin and London didn’t really have to work that hard to find words to soothe Arlene Foster’s furrowed brow. A little bit of tweaking, a deletion or two and more importantly a decision not to share the detail as to how a soft Brexit and special arrangements for trade on the island of Ireland would be achieved and the Brexit roadshow moves on.
The truth of the matter is much simpler. Theresa May and her government need a trade deal with the EU much more than they need the DUP. The sweeter the deal the easier its passage through Westminster. And any soft Brexit deal will be ultimately passed with the support of the Labour Party, which in turn will make the DUP support redundant.
Letting the DUP bark was no bad thing and over time it may be revealed that Monday was all a bit of a stage show. The DUP don’t like to be outflanked by the TUV leader and he was in bullish form on Monday afternoon. The so-called concessions won from the Brussels communiqué are things that only the DUP would need spelt out for them and although they weren’t mentioned on Monday, they were taken as read by Brussels, London and Dublin.
In Monday’s leaked text, Northern Ireland would still like the rest of the UK leave both the customs union and the EU. The same was affirmed on Friday. The constitutional and political status of Northern Ireland has not changed since the DUP induced indigestion on Monday. And that wouldn’t have changed post Brexit.
The principle of consent in the Good Friday Agreement underpins the constitutional position of Northern Ireland within the United Kingdom for as long as the people of Northern Ireland so desire. Responsibility for foreign affairs, taxation, welfare and the defence for all of the United Kingdom including Northern Ireland would still reside at Westminster. The devolved assembly if it ever returns will still need royal assent should they ever pass legislation. The Queen will still be head of state for Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
On Monday all that was stated was the mechanism as to how a frictionless border and trade would be facilitated on the island of Ireland and ergo the need for some regulatory convergence. Simples. There was nothing there to say Northern Ireland couldn’t freely trade within the UK as we currently do despite being in the EU. The 150 unique cross border projects as identified by EU, Irish and British mapping officials will require legislative structures post Brexit. Rather naively an over excitable Ulster Unionist Brexiter asked the BBC during the week,“But why would any of this change? I listened incredulously. It’s like watching the last days of the British Raj. These guys are like golfers who don’t want to pay their annual fees but still feel they should have access to all club rights and privileges including access seven days golf, the showers and the bar. The EU isn’t changing the rules, the UK is by leaving the club.
This was classic fudge making. It contains just enough creative ambiguity to allow the breakthrough to be interpreted as the DUP see fit. There is a real sense that the hand played by the DUP to the prime minister was ‘aces and eights’ better known as the dead man’s hand. That was the hand that the unlucky Wild Bill Hickok reportedly held when he was shot dead by Jack McCall. McCall got hanged.
Similarly there will be no happy ending to the relationship between the DUP and the Conservative Party. There will be deep and unforgiving distaste among many on the Conservative benches for the DUP’s attempt to publicly diminish and humiliate the prime minister during crucial talks. In politics what goes around, comes around.
