With the ‘distraction’ of the general election out of the way (and, at the time of writing, I have no idea how good or bad their day has been) the local parties will be back to Stormont on Monday to see if they can avoid another Assembly election in October. I really hope they can. The thought of yet another round of Leaders’ Debates, helpless spokesmen being devoured alive by Stephen Nolan and press conferences to launch their fourth election manifesto in two years, is far too much to bear.
That said, the chances of a deal don’t look good. Over the last few weeks Sinn Féin spokesmen have argued that: “partition has failed”; “the Assembly is just a transition (to a united Ireland); and “yes, this election is about the numbers for a border poll.” Hard to see them constructing a deal with the DUP if they don’t even think that the Assembly is worth preserving. Even harder to see the DUP backing a deal if Sinn Féin’s mind is entirely focused on a border poll and the unity project.
Meanwhile, the DUP has said that the rebooting of an executive with Sinn Féin will depend on five core tests being passed: “These include full consistency with Northern Ireland remaining a full and integral part of the United Kingdom, fully compatible with British citizenship and resulting in better government than a return to direct rule.” Hmm, there is more chance of a DUP MLA ‘outing’ himself and professing his undying love for Gerry Kelly than there is of Sinn Féin agreeing to those core tests. As well the DUP knows.
What I haven’t yet worked out is whether or not the secretary of state (and, if nothing else, let’s hope we get a more credible one than the congenitally dull James Brokenshire) is serious about direct rule. Is he serious about closing down the Assembly, mothballing the institutions, removing the MLA title and salary from the 90 members elected in March, shutting down the constituency offices and assuming responsibility for the government of Northern Ireland? Of course he isn’t. He knows it. The Irish know it. The DUP and SF know it. Because once you close it down, it becomes remarkably difficult to put it back in place again. But I’m pretty sure there would be a huge public outcry if we ended up with just suspension and the continuation of salaries and assorted perks.
I think SF is pretty sanguine about the possibility of closure, though. As I noted in this column a few months ago they’re already thinking beyond the Assembly. Even if, as I suspect, their result on Thursday wasn’t quite as good as they hoped it would be (in other words, the border poll push has taken a knock), their mind is now focused on unity on the back of Brexit. It’s hard to build a credible executive with one hand, if you’re preparing for a quicker-than-expected unity with the other. Which means they may be happy enough to deep-freeze the institutions for a couple of years.
It’s a harder call for the DUP. Foster has already taken a hit with the loss of a unionist majority in an assembly election she could have avoided. Devolution replaced with direct rule will not play well with her 27 colleagues (not forgetting their staff); and matters will be made worse if May has established the sort of majority which doesn’t require a nod and wink deal with the DUP. Ian Paisley and Peter Robinson harried and mocked David Trimble for his failure to sustain devolution. They will only be too aware of the price Trimble and the UUP paid for that failure and sense of instability.
At this point I think the DUP would like to bring the UUP and SDLP on board and lure them back into the executive again. The experience of being locked at the hip with SF was not a pleasant one for them - particularly since Foster was never able to forge the same sort of relationship with Martin McGuinness that Paisley and Robinson forged. Having Swann and Eastwood (maybe even Naomi Long) around the executive table would probably ease tensions; and it might also bring some pressure to bear on SF if four of the five parties were prepared to reboot a collective executive.
At this point the ball is mostly in SF’s court: in the sense that they have less to lose than the DUP if we’re heading towards a long period of direct rule. That means they’ve a slightly stronger hand to play. But since Foster has blindsided me a couple of times since last November (not too mention key figures in her own party) I wouldn’t be surprised if she does so again. Paisley and Robinson were able to construct a reasonable working relationship with Sinn Féin (even though there was no love lost between the parties); I’m not sure that Foster actually wants to.
