Opinion

Deaglán de Bréadún: Living in interesting times has its downside

Donald Trump's speech will hardly evoke the same enthusiasm as John F Kennedy’s declaration at the 1961 ceremony: “The torch has been passed to a new generation”
Donald Trump's speech will hardly evoke the same enthusiasm as John F Kennedy’s declaration at the 1961 ceremony: “The torch has been passed to a new generation” Donald Trump's speech will hardly evoke the same enthusiasm as John F Kennedy’s declaration at the 1961 ceremony: “The torch has been passed to a new generation”

VERY shortly we shall have the inauguration of Donald Trump as 45th President of the United States.

His speech will be listened to with great interest and some trepidation. It will hardly evoke the same enthusiasm as John F Kennedy’s declaration at the 1961 ceremony: “The torch has been passed to a new generation.” Kennedy was 27 years younger than his predecessor and doubtless never expected Eisenhower to outlive him by six years.

It’s a safe bet that Trump’s speech will include a call to “make America great again”. Clearly his White House tenure will be very different from the Obama years, but those who recall the Reagan and Nixon years may not be surprised at his actions: a right-wing, business-oriented president is hardly something new.

Despite shaking hands with Gerry Adams at a 1995 Sinn Féin fundraising lunch in Manhattan, it’s unlikely he will take the same interest as Hillary Clinton in this small island. Part of the reason is thankfully that we are no longer seen as a violent trouble-spot. Besides, the Clintons had an attachment to this place which Trump does not appear to share.

Commenting on the ecstatic reception Bill Clinton got during his 1995 visit here, the late Frank McCourt, author of Angela’s Ashes, said to me: “A needy man met a needy people.”

At a time when both parts of this island seek to attract multinationals with low-tax policies, the new US administration looks like taking a similar approach, so Trump’s arrival at the Oval Office over there may mean fewer jobs over here.

On the security front, his political rapport with Vladimir Putin should make another world war less likely although The Donald’s apparently-volatile temperament is a cause for concern.

On the smaller stage of British-Irish affairs, the passage of the Brexit referendum has of course been a political earthquake. All sorts of dire consequences are possible. The “invisible” border between north and south may become highly-obtrusive; farmers throughout the island are likely to suffer; relations between Dublin and London could well grow sour; the peace process may be endangered.

In time, however, the starker implications of the Brexit decision may be modified. The UK is too close to the European mainland to adopt a hard-line policy of monastic self-exclusion. Politics is the art of the possible and a compromise that defuses anti-EU sentiment while preserving some key links at a practical level could be worked out eventually.

Nearer home, the political situation in the north can only be described as a mess. Competence and efficiency appear to be in short supply. Time was when we naively thought only a certain breed of politician in the south was capable of the type of behaviour we have seen over the Renewable Heat Incentive scheme, but sadly it has turned out to be an all-island phenomenon.

One’s mind goes back to that sparkling day in 2007 when the Paisley-McGuinness power-sharing administration first came into being. We all knew there would be problems along the road but few expected it would be something so disappointing as the RHI controversy.

The collapse of the executive and an early general election may prove unavoidable but that would certainly damage the reputation of the peace process internationally. One can imagine eyes being rolled to heaven as observers remark: “Bloody Irish, they can’t stop fighting among themselves.” (To the world at large, we’re all Irish, even those who give allegiance to the British monarch.)

The words of American patriot Benjamin Franklin on the need to hang together for fear of being hanged separately come to mind when considering the responses of the two main parties to the crisis. The DUP has united behind its leader – at least for now. Sinn Féin has engaged in such nifty political footwork that the party ought to be giving ballet classes.

You can’t help feeling a certain sympathy for assembly Speaker, Robin Newton, who was in an unenviable position. If he had refused to let Arlene Foster speak, the assembly would presumably have collapsed. But there appears to be little enthusiasm for an early election on either side of the executive.

Down south, a minority regime that some believed would not survive till Christmas is still trundling along.

Critics of Taoiseach Enda Kenny would say he ought to get the “Forgotten But Not Gone” award. At times, his demeanour recalls Margaret Thatcher’s 1987 pronouncement, “I hope to go on and on”, but he could also decide to step down at short notice.

Yet it’s curious how the political scene in Dublin seems more stable than in Belfast whereas the security situation – with all those gangland shootings – is arguably somewhat worse.

We are certainly all victims of the Chinese curse: “May you live in interesting times.”

@ddebreadun