Opinion

There may be trouble ahead as executive prepares for post-Covid governance

Adversity appears to have brought the new Stormont executive together, but how will it cope when tough spending decisions have to be made? Allison Morris casts an eye over the performance of ministers so far and the challenges they face in the months ahead

Pictured in January, the executive face a huge task in rebuilding the economy and society after Covid-19
Pictured in January, the executive face a huge task in rebuilding the economy and society after Covid-19 Pictured in January, the executive face a huge task in rebuilding the economy and society after Covid-19

FOR an executive forced together by an increasingly angry public, they have coped remarkably well in a crisis.

It's arguable that some ministers have fared better than others, but then some have faced greater challenges than their colleagues.

While it remains right that genuine political concerns are raised if and when they occur, and not glossed over for some facade of unity, it is also reassuring to to see leaders speaking from the same page.

It is worth repeating that issues with PPE and the tragic cases of Covid-19 in care homes will require further scrutiny and potentially even public investigation.

But increasingly it appears the case that the executive team at least has found a way to navigate through the coronavirus crisis as a collective, mitigating the immediate threat to public health and increasing services and social security safety nets where possible.

It must be noted that much of this was funded by Westminster borrowing on an unprecedented scale.

The £1bn extra into the Stormont budget sounds like a lot but at the current rate of spending will be gone by autumn.

And as there's no such thing as a free lunch, payback will be a lengthy and painful process, with higher taxes, increased cost of living and savage austerity to social welfare among the potential penalties.

In the meantime the issues that mounted during three years without devolution remain to be faced.

Tackling a 300,000 patient waiting list was meant to be Robin Swann's key challenge, until Covid came and priorities shifted.

Those people, many in chronic pain, will not wait around forever while hospital beds lie empty.

Health is the one department that needs to make sure normal service of treatment, surgery and screening gets back on track as soon as possible, and for some even that may come too late.

Transformation in education including a review of the school estate, which requires some tough decisions from minister Peter Weir, has also been put on the back burner.

The crisis has also amplified unresolved issues over academic selection where there is a very real chance to modernise the system rather than the current shambles that benefits no child.

Infrastructure minister Nichola Mallon has seen opportunity from catastrophe and is looking at greener transport and pedestrianisation of city landscapes, something a socially distanced future has made essential rather than desirable.

Justice minister Naomi Long has been able to implement change in weeks that previously due to bureaucracy would have taken years.

However, her task now is looking at what worked and what didn't and ensuring not all is returned to 'normal' when normal in many areas of justice was dysfunctional.

Edwin Poots will have to decide if he is willing to put duty over party when, come January, the Northern Ireland protocol kicks in and he is tasked as agriculture minister with overseeing many of the post-Brexit agri-food and livestock checks that need regulated.

The politician who has shone throughout the crisis is Deirdre Hargey. She put changes in place to try to provide a soft landing to those relying on social welfare during what became not just a health crisis but a human one.

But the money thrown at the benefits system was not coming from a magic printing press and tough calls, that go against the instinct of the activist minister, will need to be made.

The DUP has always styled itself on being the party of business but with a Brexit it voted for coming on the back of coronavirus economic downturn, Diane Dodds will have a two-pronged battle on her hands that will require securing new, outside investment in a tough global market.

It is a job that could be made a lot easier if the new-found public unity between the first and deputy ministers Arlene Foster and Michelle O'Neill can be maintained after the crisis has passed.

The two will be sent out to sell the north and need to overcome competition from other regions equally damaged economically.

But it is Sinn Féin's Conor Murphy who faces the biggest challenge by far - how do you feed a family of nine on a family of four's budget?

At the minute the minister is signing blank cheques but he knows that is going to run out very soon and when it does, he's going to face the reality of juggling an impossibly tight budget while trying not to abandon all previous promises.

There's trouble ahead and it's going to test the current united executive to the limit.