Opinion

ANALYSIS: Theresa May was far from perfect but she was infinitely favourable to the likely disarray that lies ahead

British Prime Minister Theresa May makes her resignation speech outside 10 Downing. Picture by AP Photo/Alastair Grant
British Prime Minister Theresa May makes her resignation speech outside 10 Downing. Picture by AP Photo/Alastair Grant British Prime Minister Theresa May makes her resignation speech outside 10 Downing. Picture by AP Photo/Alastair Grant

IN the manner Brexit dominated the news agenda for months, the media's focus in the coming weeks will be almost entirely on the Tory leadership contest. But once that's resolved, it'll be back to the business of extricating the UK from the EU. That Halloween deadline is just over five months away but it won't be long coming round. It's difficult to say what will happen then because there's not even a guarantee that the Tories will still be in power.

No doubt, in the short-term the blame for a disastrous European election will, with plenty of justification, be laid at the door of the departing Theresa May. Her dogged desire to somehow gain support for the withdrawal agreement has likely led millions of traditional Tory voters to migrate to the fledgling Brexit Party, while also costing her job.

But the vexed problem of the backstop hasn't gone away and whoever steps into Downing Street later this summer will face the same problem as their successor – how do you leave the EU without causing catastrophe?

The frontrunner for the top Tory job at present is Boris Johnson, his star ascendant on the basis that he can pull the party out of its electoral malaise. His credentials in that regard are good, however, they would need to be exceptional if he is to gain the Westminster majority that eluded Mrs May, and without the support of MPs, the former foreign secretary will struggle to get his favoured deal – whatever that is? – through parliament.

Under the current mandate's numbers, Westminster provides a safety net against a no deal with most MPs wary of taking a leap in the dark. There's nothing to suggest Britain's political landscape will shift significantly in the coming months, creating the opportunity for Mr Johnson to lead the UK to those mythologised sunny uplands. In all likelihood the current situation will prevail, politics paralysed by stalemate and a lack of consensus. His honeymoon will be short-lived.

But regardless of whether it's Boris or one of the other contenders, the scenario that greets the next Tory leader will be the same – an EU committed to the backstop and a parliament rife with division.

Meanwhile, Ireland and the north especially will continue to be the collateral damage from Tory in-fighting. The DUP will pursue its self-harm trajectory, insisting the region where women's rights, language rights and LGBT+ rights fail to mirror those in Britain, must not be treated differently than the rest of the UK.

Theresa May was far from perfect and the withdrawal agreement wasn't a panacea for Northern Ireland but the deal on offer appears infinitely favourable to the disarray that likely lies ahead.