Opinion

Analysis: Brexit flextension may yet end in a spooktacular mess

Prime Minister Theresa May arrives at the European Council in Brussels where EU leaders met to discuss Brexit. Picture by Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire
Prime Minister Theresa May arrives at the European Council in Brussels where EU leaders met to discuss Brexit. Picture by Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire Prime Minister Theresa May arrives at the European Council in Brussels where EU leaders met to discuss Brexit. Picture by Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire

NOT for a second does anybody think the EU's 'flextension' means we are closer to a resolving the mess that British politics finds itself in.

It creates a little breathing space but we'll barely have time to exhale before Brexit will again start smothering wider political debate.

Business people, those who had most to lose if the UK had crashed out of the EU tonight, are clearly relieved yet they must understand it is only a temporary reprieve and potentially they will face a nightmare scenario come Halloween.

Dublin too will breathe a sigh of relief, while acknowledging that there's still much work to be done.

If anything, an already problematic situation is further complicated by the need to hold European elections in less than six weeks' time.

Usually nobody cares particularly about the outcome of an EU election but this time around it will become a key Brexit battleground.

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Notably though, the May 23 poll will hardly constitute a rerun of the referendum because rather than binary options, the electorate will likely face a messy field, representing disparate interests.

For the meantime the political landscape remains the same as it did 48 hours ago. Theresa May will persevere with her courtship of Jeremy Corbyn, until her patience runs out, and the DUP and ERG will continue to decry the backstop, while at the same time insisting they don't want a hard border.

The Tory eurosceptics will threaten to oust the indefatigable Mrs May and a snap general election will hover stage right. However, for now it seems only the most fervent Brexiteers are willing to risk the instability that either of these scenarios would precipitate.

Europe has been both considerate and resilient in recent weeks, akin to a parent helping an errant teenager appreciate the consequences of their bad behaviour.

There appears to be an air of self-satisfaction to Donald Tusk's words, which as well as providing assurance that Brussels will stretch itself to accommodate the UK's chaotic predicament, also serve as a warning to other states that seeking to extricate yourself from the EU is by no means an easy process.

Where the runaway Brexit train takes us next is unclear and while six months represents a long time in politics, come Halloween we may well find ourselves embroiled in a similar spooktacular mess.