Opinion

ANALYSIS: Watch the DUP shift from stridency to roll-over

Sammy Wilson said the DUP would accept a time-limited backstop – despite previously rejecting it in any form. Picture by Mal McCann
Sammy Wilson said the DUP would accept a time-limited backstop – despite previously rejecting it in any form. Picture by Mal McCann Sammy Wilson said the DUP would accept a time-limited backstop – despite previously rejecting it in any form. Picture by Mal McCann

OVER recent weeks some have noticed straws in the wind while others have spotted a neon sign flashing 'fudge' writ large.

Jacob Rees-Mogg's attendance at a DUP fundraiser at Ballymena's Tullyglass hotel a month ago represented peak Brexiteer hubris.

It was a celebration of sorts, coming little over a fortnight after Theresa May's historic Westminster defeat, when those who appeared to have little concern about the consequences of a hard Brexit believed they had the upper hand and the EU would be forced to capitulate and abandon the backstop.

But that was their high water mark and in the weeks since, the language and tone from some in the DUP and the European Research Group has softened.

Sammy Wilson, the DUP Brexit spokesman and oft-deployed 'attack dog', has been less visible than usual, and when he does appear, he tells us this week that his party will accept a withdrawal agreement that includes a backstop, just as long as it's time limited – even though he'd previously said it was unacceptable in any form.

The portents of a climbdown – or a lack of DUP consistency? – have been there for some time.

As far back as January, in what some regarded as a kite flying exercise by one of the DUP's more peripheral MPs, Jim Shannon indicated his party would consider a time-limited backstop.

Then a fortnight ago his colleague Gregory Campbell said the "destination" of securing legally binding changes to the backstop was more important than the "mechanism" employed to get there.

The so-called Brady amendment called for a re-opening of the withdrawal agreement but a month on the contents of the deal agreed in November remain sealed and the best reassurance the British government can hope for is a codicil.

What has forced the DUP's change of heart is a matter of some debate and arguably it's a culmination of things.

The party's unionist rivals believe that the DUP's approach has been flawed from the beginning and that it was never likely to deliver the hard Brexit many of its representatives yearn for.

There's also a school of thought that believes the unprecedented divergence with its core constituencies of farmers and businesspeople prompted the party to reflect on the long-term consequences of pursuing a strategy that could ultimately end with no deal.

When these elements are coupled with Theresa May's obvious desire to run down the clock, the DUP and fellow Brexiteers have found themselves with few options, none of which they like – a delayed Brexit, a second referendum, or remaining in the EU.

They have therefore opted for what they regard as the best of a bad bunch – a minimally tweaked withdrawal agreement that will ensure Brexit in name at least.

When the final roll-over will come is unclear but expect it to be well disguised and accompanied by plenty of bluster and other distractions.