Opinion

ANALYSIS: Stakes are high in the FF/SDLP cross-border courtship

Colum Eastwood and Micheál Martin are forging greater co-operation between their parties
Colum Eastwood and Micheál Martin are forging greater co-operation between their parties Colum Eastwood and Micheál Martin are forging greater co-operation between their parties

THE OPTIONS for Colum Eastwood and the SDLP are extremely limited. From its electoral high point immediately after the Good Friday Agreement, the SDLP has seen its vote steadily decline, the coup de grâce coming in the 2017 general election when the party lost its three Westminster MPs. Greater alignment between the SDLP and Fianna Fáil has been long mooted, though when initially discussed the two respective parties were in notably stronger positions than they find themselves in today. Sinn Féin's growing preeminience in the north, coupled with leadership changes in relatively quick succession, has left the SDLP looking directionless, while the fall-out from the financial crash continues to dog Micheál Martin's party a decade on.

Clearly the SDLP needs closer alignment more than Fianna Fáil does, though the southern party must see advantages in greater ties with northern nationalism as it fends off Sinn Féin's challenge in the Republic. The SDLP's coffers are exhausted and even if the Stormont assembly were to be restored soon, there's nothing whatsoever to suggest the party's decline could be arrested. As one former party aide noted: "There's no votes in nostalgia."

Arguably, however, politics on the island needs the paradigm shift that this new level of cross-border political cooperation would signal. Historically, Sinn Féin has been the only all-Ireland party to command significant support but Brexit has made the argument for greater north-south collaboration much more compelling. With every undermining of the all-island dimension that the UK's exit from the EU brings we can expect an inverse political reaction and a desire the for concerns of a significant constituency to be articulated on both sides of the border.

But the forging of a partnership between the two parties looks like it won't be an entirely smooth process. There is a significant contingent within the SDLP's ranks, albeit a minority, who are unhappy with this leadership-led initiative. Some believe it will alienate soft unionists, while others cite ideological grounds and the abandonment of a rather nebulous notion of social democracy. The loss of the high-profile and articulate Claire Hanna, who represents the Labour-leaning wing of the party, would be setback for Mr Eastwood and his party's ambitions in South Belfast, where it has an outside chance of reclaiming the Westminster seat lost 18 months ago. However, at present that looks like a sacrifice the leadership is reluctantly willing to make.

To date, the only reports of how the process will pan out have been speculative, suggesting even the main protagonists aren't entirely certain about how it will evolve. It seems co-operation will soon morph into partnership with a potential for full-blown marriage on the cards after a period of cohabitation that will cover the forthcoming local government elections.

Critics from within republicanism have been dismissive of the cross-border courtship, characterising it as a dance of death between two political has-beens. Beneath the disdain, however, perhaps lies a fear that this high stakes gamble may just pay off.