Opinion

John Manley: Theresa May's difficult situation just got worse

A heave against Theresa May now seems inevitable. Picture by PA Wire
A heave against Theresa May now seems inevitable. Picture by PA Wire A heave against Theresa May now seems inevitable. Picture by PA Wire

To paraphrase Oscar Wilde – losing one cabinet minister is misfortune; to lose two in 24 hours is carelessness. Given Boris Johnson's long-held unease with the direction of Brexit, the real surprise is that it took so long for him to resign. In reality he could have quit the government at any stage over the past year or more but it appears he bided his time to ensure his resignation has maximum effect.

  • PM's plan for Brexit would leave UK like a 'colony' of EU says Boris Johnson amid resignations
  • Resignations leave British government in chaos
  • Theresa May wows to fight leadership heave

Coupled with the earlier departure of Brexit Secretary David Davis, the foreign secretary's decision to quit creates unprecedented problems for Theresa May, who 48 hours previous looked to have pulled off something of a coup by appearing to secure united support for her government's latest proposals.

It now seems inevitable that a heave against Mrs May will materialise, further exposing the deep divisions in the Tory party at a time when the UK should be presenting a solid front at its negotiations with the EU. This scenario will only suit one side ­– those who are happy to break the links with Brussels without any deal on future arrangements.

It's an 'off a cliff edge' situation that will be celebrated privately, if not publicly, by hard Brexiteers in the Tory party and their allies in the DUP, yet for the rest of us, and especially those in Northern Ireland, no deal will spell disaster as relations between the UK and the EU deteriorate and Northern Ireland becomes the collateral damage in an acrimonious divorce.

Mrs May is unlikely to fall on her sword over the coming days and despite growing uncertainty, will try to stabilise her government.

However, if a no confidence vote is triggered and a leadership contest follows, the UK will be heading towards the realms of relative chaos, where even a success for the incumbent would prove a Pyrrhic victory that is unlikely to usher in a period of cohesion in the Conservative Party.

Without the backing from a significant bloc in her party, the prospects of a snap general election also increase, again signalling despair where there should be hope. And while Jeremy Corbyn would ordinarily be relishing the chance to occupy Downing Street, the context of any Labour general election victory and the party's similarly divided loyalties over Brexit would not auger well for his time in office.

Against the background of this turmoil in the Tory party, efforts are expected to get underway to restore devolution in Northern Ireland but we can hardly expect Stormont to be made a priority when the government is being torn asunder.