WHEN I mentioned during a recent interview that I didn’t expect any particular ‘change’ from the coming election, a young woman said: “But nobody predicted wins for Leave or Trump.”
Actually, quite a few of us, including me, cautioned about a ‘lazy, closed-eye, establishment consensus that people like Farage, Trump and Le Pen can’t win.’ My view was that the odds certainly favoured the status quo, ‘but only a fool would dismiss the prospect of victory for this new populism.’
So, when I say that I don’t expect change on March 2, I know that lots of you will make the same point about Leave and Trump. But there is a very significant difference when it comes to our election; namely, there is no evidence whatsoever of a populist alternative to what are, to all intents and purposes, the ‘establishment’ voices of Sinn Féin and the DUP.
There is no charismatic figure stomping the land with a microphone; an army of social media supporters; a manifesto for change; and an electoral vehicle stuffed with candidates. All those people demanding change on March 2 will be hard pushed to find examples of that change on their ballot papers.
While I admire the enthusiasm and passion of People Before Profit, Cross-Community Labour Alternative, the Green Party and the handful of independents who will offer themselves as candidates, they don’t have the electoral machines necessary to damage Sinn Féin and the DUP. None of them were expecting this election, so it’s unlikely that they’ll have the funds or manpower to wage the sort of campaign which can lead to change.
The four PBP/Green MLAs will be hard pushed to keep the seats they have, let alone add to the tally. Claire Sugden and Jim Allister are likely to hold their seats, but they won’t be in a position afterwards to set the talks agenda.
Alliance, I think, will keep the eight they have; and they have an outside chance of a ninth. The UUP and SDLP were badly damaged in the last assembly election (their worst ever electoral performances) and will struggle to keep some of their MLAs who came in on the last count, particularly against the background of a fall in seats from 108-90.
And while it’s true that Nesbitt and Eastwood have forged a good personal relationship in the past six months, it’s beginning to look—unless they have a surprise in store—that they haven’t had enough time to create the sort of pact necessary to unsettle or undermine the DUP and Sinn Féin.
The DUP won’t be sanguine about the electoral challenges ahead. They know that damage has been done to them, but they also know that they can take a pretty big hit on March 2 (part of which will be absorbed in the overall reduction of seats) and still emerge as the largest party, along with the 30 seats—probably a couple more—they need to retain the power of deploying a petition of concern on their own.
It also looks like they’re going to play the “Back Arlene Or You’ll Get Gerry’s Puppet As First Minister” card; and I’m pretty sure that will reap electoral dividends for them.
Sinn Féin has factored in the potential loss of a few seats, but is confident of offsetting that with SDLP losses and maybe a gain or two from Eastwood. So, while I’m not expecting Sinn Féin to nudge ahead of the DUP—unlikely, yet not impossible—I’m pretty sure they’ll be content with the damage they can inflict on the SDLP. At this point, although there’s a long way to go, the SDLP could be down to just nine MLAs.
Two factors could change this analysis: a significant increase in turnout, with those voters who haven’t voted in recent elections deciding to punish the DUP; or a wedge of DUP voters choosing to either stay at home or switch to the UUP and TUV.
The former is more likely, because I still think that unionists are spooked by the prospect of a Sinn Féin first minister and will back the unionist party most likely to prevent that happening. And the problem for voters who haven’t voted for a while is that they may see nothing that they regard as capable of delivering credible change—in other words, nothing to encourage them to the ballot box.
There is a long way to go until March 2 and, as we have seen around the world in the past five years or so, electoral surprises are becoming commonplace.
Yet my gut instinct suggests that, in the continuing absence of a charismatic, credible alternative to the DUP/SF axis, we will end up with that same axis on March 3. But Northern Ireland needs an electoral surprise; if only to stop the DUP and SF taking us for granted and treating us like sheep.
