Opinion

Sinn Féin leads as crucial election approaches

While opinion polls represent a summary of views at a specific stage, and changes of heart are possible as the Assembly election campaign reaches a climax, their patterns over a prolonged period have been strikingly consistent.

As today's latest Institute of Irish Studies-University of Liverpool/The Irish News survey confirms, Sinn Féin remains on course to become the largest party and in a position to claim the Stormont first minister's post - if it exists.

The figures suggest that Sinn Féin has widened its lead over the DUP to almost seven points, sitting on 27 pc and almost matching its performance in the last Assembly election in 2017, with the DUP on 20.2 pc, well behind its 28.1 pc of five years ago.

Alliance on 14.6 pc could rise from fifth to third overall, with the Ulster Unionists on 13.5 pc and the SDLP on 10.3 pc at present in a contest for fourth place, although all parties know that a handful of transfers can still directly influence the final result.

However, Sinn Féin is within sight of a significant victory which would place the spotlight even more directly on the shameful refusal of the DUP and the Ulster Unionists to acknowledge that they will respect the verdict of the electorate and work with a nationalist first minister.

It is disturbing that the two main unionist parties appear to have been pushed into this corner by the much smaller Traditional Unionist Voice, which managed just a 2.6 pc share of the 2017 vote and even after all the attention it has received is only on 5.4 pc in today's poll.

Valid questions have been raised about the prominence given to the TUV's leader and sole MLA Jim Allister by the Stephen Nolan programme on BBC Radio Ulster, which brands itself as `the biggest show in the country.’

Mr Allister is entitled to his fair share of media platforms, but the regularity of his appearances has become an issue, with the Alliance leader and justice minister Naomi Long and the prominent SDLP figure Matthew O'Toole both firmly expressing related concerns last week. Sinn Féin and the DUP have already distanced themselves from the Nolan programme.

It will also be noted that almost one voter in five remains undecided and there is much to play for before what is widely regarded as the most crucial election in a generation takes place one month from tomorrow.