Opinion

Stakes getting higher in Westminster political drama

Leo Varadkar's description yesterday of the 'volatile and dynamic' situation at Westminster was, if anything, an understatement of the febrile atmosphere in London where the stakes are being raised ever higher as we hurtle towards the October 31 deadline.

This week had been billed as a crucial stage in the Brexit process with Boris Johnson dealing with a Tory backbench revolt which could lead to a government defeat in the House of Commons as early as today.

With Mr Johnson holding a majority of just one and with a number of Tory rebels said to be prepared to join the opposition parties to force through legislation that would prevent a no deal, speculation mounted yesterday that the government was about to call a general election.

The prime minister even appeared outside Number 10 but instead of naming a date he declared that he did not want to go the the polls.

However, that could all change today if his government loses in the Commons and Mr Johnson decides he needs to go for broke in order to win a mandate.

His decision to prorogue parliament in the midst of the Brexit crisis shows he is prepared to turn all the normal conventions on their head in a bid to wrongfoot his opponents.

At the weekend he threatened to withdraw the whip and prevent rebels from standing for the party if they voted against the government, this despite the wholesale defiance which has gone largely unpunished over the past months.

Former justice secretary David Gauke said he believed the strategy was to goad MPs into voting against the government then seek an election having purged those who don't support a no deal.

That would be a particularly Machiavellian strategy but we know that key aide and arch-disruptor Dominic Cummings is ready to challenge established norms and do what would be normally considered unthinkable.

Given the chaos created by the Tories, Labour should go into an election with a commanding lead, but with Jeremy Corbyn at the helm there is little confidence that the party will triumph at the ballot box.

A snap poll could also deliver considerable change in Northern Ireland, where the DUP is vulnerable in a number of seats.

All the indications are that the government will call an election sooner rather than later.