Opinion

Tense period for the new Dail

As the last remaining counts in the Irish general election approached their final declarations last night, it became more apparent than ever that the task of forming a new administration is going to prove an exceptionally complex one.

It would be difficult to argue with the respected minister for foreign affairs, Charlie Flanagan, who concluded yesterday that, even though his Fine Gael party was almost certain to finish narrowly ahead of Fianna Fail, Irish politics was in `a state of flux.'

For more than three decades, every Irish cabinet has been formed through either a full coalition between Fine Gael and Labour/Democratic Left or a deal between Fianna Fail and a variety of much smaller groups.

The arithmetic of the next Dail has effectively ruled out both of those familiar options, so intense negotiations involving tentative proposals linked to some previously unthinkable combinations will inevitably follow.

Most speculation has centred on the unprecedented prospect of an accommodation between the two largest parties who have been bitter rivals almost constantly since the end of the civil war in 1923.

The obvious advantage would be the initial creation of a comfortable majority which could potentially last for a full term of office, but there would also be a serious danger that the enduring tensions between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail could bring the whole arrangement crashing down prematurely.

In those circumstances, both parties would be acutely aware that Sinn Fein, having been left to develop as the main opposition voice, would be well placed to make further gains and believe that it was even capable of moving into pole position after the next election.

Sinn Fein itself, having said that it has ruled out ministerial posts at this stage, also has plenty to consider in the coming days as it reflects on an outcome which represented a significant advance but did not reach the kind of breakthrough which opinion polls had previously suggested was fully attainable.

Fianna Fail undoubtedly has most to celebrate as an astute strategic performance from its leader, Micheal Martin, confounded many predictions to leave it comfortably clear of Sinn Fein and breathing down the necks of Fine Gael.

Mr Martin can now examine the possibility of supporting a minority Fine Gael government, and endorsing key financial measures, including the next budget, while preparing for an all-out push to regain power the next time round.

Other alternatives involve unlikely permutations concerning the diverse range of independent and left wing TDs who will have a numerically strong but largely disjointed role to play in all the maneuvering.

An intriguing period lies ahead, but there will also be fears that prolonged instability in Leinster House, just as huge uncertainty surrounds the UK's EU referendum, will not be in the best interests of ordinary people on either side of the Irish border.