Opinion

Patrick Murphy: Only important voice on protocol is Washington's

US President Joe Biden. Picture by AP Photo/Andrew Harnik
US President Joe Biden. Picture by AP Photo/Andrew Harnik US President Joe Biden. Picture by AP Photo/Andrew Harnik

NEVER mind what London says. You can also ignore what you hear from Brussels and Dublin and the noises from Belfast are largely idle chatter. The only important voice about the NI Protocol comes from Washington.

The US administration has said that it does not expect Britain’s proposed anti-protocol legislation to impede US-UK trade dialogue and has urged both sides to resolve their differences.

While Washington may change its attitude in the future, its current policy is that although it may not agree with Boris over Brexit and the protocol, it is not going to fall out with him (well not yet, anyway).

The reason is that the US needs a united European front in the war against Russia, especially since both the EU and the UK are supplying arms to Ukraine. So predictions of US sanctions against the UK over the protocol are likely to prove unfounded.

Although many Irish-American politicians have strongly opposed Johnson’s proposed breach of the protocol, the US government’s top priority in foreign policy is Ukraine, not Ireland.

The only prominent US figure to support Johnson has been former Trump adviser John Bolton. He argues that the US should side with a strong UK in NATO, rather than a neutral Ireland. The White House may not go that far, but it appears content to allow Johnson wriggle room on the protocol if he keeps supplying arms to Ukraine.

Johnson’s actions show that he is prepared to exploit this opportunity. Last week, for example, he was due to campaign in the Wakefield by-election and to address Tory MPs in Doncaster (and you might wonder how Doncaster could elect a Tory).

Instead, without telling his party, he flew to Ukraine, where he promised to provide “strategic endurance”, including British training for their troops. So Boris does his electioneering in Kiev and the White House is happy to have him onside as a visible and voluble ally, particularly since his proposed anti-protocol legislation may not become law in its present form.

Boris (or whoever succeeds him) may have to ultimately negotiate with the EU. The US will intervene only if the legislation goes through parliament and triggers a legal and/or trade dispute between the UK and the EU.

While the US hopes for a Labour victory in the next British general election, party leader Keir Starmer might best be described as rather wooden when it comes to whipping up political popularity. This absence of an effective opposition allows Boris to pursue his dream of following in Churchill’s wartime footsteps.

Britain is not (yet) at war, but rising food and fuels prices mean that it is in a wartime economy. The new British army chief says his troops must be “capable of beating Russia in battle”, which suggests it may not be all quiet on the Eastern front if Boris loses the run of himself.

This means that back in Belfast, the Assembly is unlikely to reconvene for some time. The DUP can only sit and wait for significant changes to the protocol, while Boris tries to rally Tory support in parliament by sabre-rattling against the Russians.

In Dublin, Taoiseach Micheál Martin appears undecided between angst and anger at the prospect of an EU-UK trade war, which would harm Ireland more than any other EU state. He has inherited the poor post-Brexit policy decisions made by Fine Gael, but he has yet to recognise that making his own decisions might be a better way forward.

Like the DUP, he too is a spectator. It matters little what anyone says in Belfast or Dublin unless and until the US uses its economic and political leverage to resolve the protocol row. Right now, that leverage is on hold, because the US needs both the EU and the UK as allies.

All of which means that a long war in Ukraine may well mean a long delay in the return of Stormont.