Opinion

Newton Emerson: Downing Street delivers worst of both worlds

Newton Emerson

Newton Emerson

Newton Emerson writes a twice-weekly column for The Irish News and is a regular commentator on current affairs on radio and television.

In Westminster this week, foreign secretary Liz Truss merely promised, rather than tabled, legislation on the Northern Ireland Protocol.
In Westminster this week, foreign secretary Liz Truss merely promised, rather than tabled, legislation on the Northern Ireland Protocol. In Westminster this week, foreign secretary Liz Truss merely promised, rather than tabled, legislation on the Northern Ireland Protocol.

It was a terrible plan but it might just have worked.

If foreign secretary Liz Truss had tabled legislation on Tuesday to disapply the protocol that might have been enough to give the DUP the excuse it is desperate for to return to Stormont. The new law need never have been passed, let alone used.

But differences of opinion in Downing Street over how much help to give the DUP resulted in the legislation being merely promised, not tabled.

Because even the DUP is no longer naive enough to trust a Downing Street promise, the party is now preparing for a lengthier Stormont boycott than it would prefer, perhaps the nine months or so it might take a bill to pass. However, the promise alone has been enough to cause outrage in Brussels, Dublin and Washington.

As so often with Brexit in Northern Ireland, the best of both worlds has become the worst of both worlds.

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Stormont is like Jurassic Park - life finds a way (plus there are dinosaurs).

Although the DUP has blocked the assembly by refusing to nominate a speaker, members have already established they can put written questions to caretaker ministers. This is often a more effective form of scrutiny than asking questions in the chamber, as the minister’s officials have to make a plausible stab at a direct answer.

What else might evolve in the months of limbo ahead? There could be innovative procedural surprises, or democracy could simply begin reasserting itself by default.

The assembly cannot conduct official business without a speaker but there is nothing to prevent members turning up and nobody to tell them to sit in silence if they do.

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It is audacious of the DUP to defend its minority veto over Stormont when it has demanded majority rule for decades. This reached surreal heights in the Commons when DUP MP Carla Lockhart asked “what John Hume would make of the divisive and majoritarian approach” of SDLP leader Colum Eastwood on the protocol.

The SDLP lost its temper, to DUP delight - Sammy Wilson continued the wind-up with a statement praising “John Hume’s commitment to power-sharing”.

It must be tempting for the SDLP to start quoting the late Ian Paisley back. There will be plenty of opportunities to use lines such as, “I would never repudiate the fact that I am an Irishman.”

The real ninja response would be to point out Hume was not especially committed to power-sharing. His initial proposal for the peace process was for Northern Ireland to be run by a committee, appointed by London, Dublin - and Brussels.

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With so much attention on Stormont it is easy to forget the weird, fragile and unhappy coalition to our immediate south.

Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Greens have had their majority cut to zero by the suspension of two Green TDs for supporting a Sinn Féin motion on the National Maternity Hospital. Even with the support of independents, it is increasingly uncertain the Irish government will last its five year term. The unprecedented rotating taoiseach deal, with Leo Varadkar due to replace Micheál Martin in December, is an obvious moment of danger. There may be more than Brexit-related frustration behind musings from Varadkar on a border poll and a call from Fine Gael TD Neale Richmond to plan for unification. This bypasses Martin’s shared island policy and moves towards common ground with Sinn Féin. It looks like Fine Gael is thinking of its next coalition.

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The appointment of a US special envoy to Northern Ireland is considered imminent but there are still no names of leading contenders in the public domain. Last September, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported the role could go to Congressman Brendan Boyle, who is on record saying “I am a supporter of a united Ireland”.

The newspaper named its source as a prominent lawyer and fundraiser who knows Boyle and Biden.

The White House responded that Boyle is “not under consideration, he’s not going to be under consideration, at no point has he expressed interest, and he’s not going to be the envoy to Northern Ireland”.

These days, that could mean anything.

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Former secretary of state Karen Bradley infamously did not realise that “people who are nationalists don’t vote for unionist parties and vice-versa.”

This is often cited as proof she was the worst ever occupant of Hillsborough Castle.

At least she admitted her ignorance, in an interview to a Westminster magazine, and was corrected on arrival in office.

Shaun Woodward, her Labour predecessor between 2007 and 2010, has confidently informed the BBC News Channel that “ordinary” unionists voted for Sinn Féin in this month’s election because of the party’s stance on the cost of living.

It is impossible to tell how many unionists gave Sinn Féin a first preference, or rather, it is impossible to tell if a Sinn Féin first preference voter is a unionist. The party did receive 591 transfers from people who voted unionist higher up the ballot and there will have been other such ballots where a transfer to Sinn Féin did not happen. But while exact numbers cannot be established, it is safe to say only extraordinary unionists vote Sinn Féin and vice versa - as even Bradley would know.