Opinion

Patricia Mac Bride: Lacklustre DUP campaign failing to galvanise voters

DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson at the launch of his party's assembly election campaign. Photo: Liam McBurney/PA Wire.
DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson at the launch of his party's assembly election campaign. Photo: Liam McBurney/PA Wire. DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson at the launch of his party's assembly election campaign. Photo: Liam McBurney/PA Wire.

Constituency profiles and seat predictions in the run-up to an election are an absolute staple.

Pollsters and politicos try to translate poll percentages into seats, weigh up transfer friendliness and look at performances in past elections to predict the next one.

It’s a mix of science, statistics and stabs in the dark.

I accept that I am unlikely to ever repeat my performance of correctly predicting that both John Finucane and Stephen Farry would be elected to their respective Westminster seats last time around, but a week out from election day I think it’s time to put my neck on the line and make a few calls.

Michelle O’Neill has never looked happier. On her social media accounts last weekend, she posted video clips of her working out in the gym with the message that exercise is essential for mental and physical health. She was even smiling when doing hanging crunches and inevitably there were a few men on social media who just couldn’t cope with all the positivity.

It’s a positive messaging campaign that is replicated across all of the Sinn Féin candidates’ campaigns. At its manifesto launch, it was very much a case of saying we’re ready to roll up our sleeves and get back to work in Stormont the day after the election, tackling the cost of living and the crisis in healthcare.

The SDLP election poster slogan “people first” was a bit confusing initially as it looked like a People Before Profit poster, but it too has been running a really positive campaign. Given the number of Fine Gael and Labour TDs out on the canvass with SDLP candidates, you’d be forgiven for being confused about which of the Dublin-based parties it has an understanding with.

The party’s focus too is on putting money back in people’s pockets, assuming of course there is an executive in place to make the necessary laws to allow this to happen.

The confidence and positivity of the SDLP and Sinn Féin is likely to play out in terms of seat numbers to an “as you were” scenario. In the SDLP stronghold of Foyle, it’s possible that one of Sinn Féin’s lesser-known newer MLAs could lose out to a third SDLP candidate, but People Before Profit will also be looking to regain a seat here and the DUP seat is far from safe from UUP challenge.

With a fair wind on transfers in Strangford, Conor Houston could pick up a seat for the SDLP in a space where Alliance and UUP are both vying for a second seat. In every election, Dolores Kelly’s seat in Upper Bann is vulnerable, but in every election, she has held on and I wouldn’t be writing her political obituary just yet. Sinn Féin could take a second seat here, or Alliance could take a seat, if the DUP vote fails to hold up.

Whilst we’re on Upper Bann, let’s talk about Doug Beattie. His style of leadership of the party has been much more progressive and he has succeeded in attracting a number of strong candidates with good public profiles. Julie-Ann Corr-Johnston will be targeting the votes previously cast for the DUP’s Paula Bradley in North Belfast.

Much is made of the gains by the Alliance party in opinion polls but an extra thousand votes in the constituencies where it does not currently have MLAs still isn’t going to bring its candidates up to a quota.

What it should have done was aggressively target one or two constituencies where it felt it had the best chance of increasing its representation and gone after the transfer market. The party is aggressively targeting two seats in Lagan Valley, but that appears to be down to the tenacity of its candidate, Sorcha Eastwood, more so than as an overall strategy. It’s not evident in East Antrim, for example, where a second seat might be possible for them. Ten or eleven seats would be a good result for Alliance.

The work of the Green Party on climate legislation and safe access zones at healthcare facilities should translate to holding its two seats and possibly picking up a third in East Belfast.

And what of the TUV? Like Alliance, without targeting specific constituencies a percentage rise in votes across the board isn’t going to yield an upswing in seats. Their hard-line opposition to the protocol could see them take a DUP seat in East Antrim and if the number of posters for their candidate Keith Ratcliffe in Newry and Armagh is anything to go by, they are targeting the DUP seat there. But then again, so are the UUP.

The DUP campaign is lacklustre and negative. Neither the fear-mongering over a Sinn Féin first minister nor opposition to the protocol appear to be galvanising its voters. Those DUP voters thinking of going elsewhere have a choice between the much more hard-line TUV or the positive, progressive messaging of the UUP. Either way, the party is set to lose five or more seats to other unionists and to Alliance and Greens.

Arlene Foster stood down as leader of the DUP on May 28, 2021. Jeffrey Donaldson will be hoping that the losses are minimised, otherwise the party might be searching for its fourth leader in under a year.