IT HAS been humorously suggested of late that, if Sinn Féin becomes the main party of government in the south and takes over the office of first minister in the north, there will be no need for a border poll.
The republicans would hold the top political jobs in both jurisdictions and, through avoiding a unity referendum, it would still be possible to receive block grant funding from London.
In reality, however, if Mary Lou McDonald becomes taoiseach and Michelle O’Neill is elected first minister, the calls for a referendum on Irish unity would probably become almost deafening.
The latest LucidTalk survey on northern politics, published in the Belfast Telegraph, has Sinn Féin on 24 per cent, down one point but still well ahead of the Democratic Unionist Party on 18 per cent, although the latter has gone up five points on its previous showing in this series of polls in August.
Meanwhile, south of the border, a Behaviour & Attitudes poll published in the Sunday Times earlier this month has SF at a staggering 37 per cent, 16 points ahead of its nearest rival Fine Gael at 21 per cent, with Fianna Fáil in third place at 20 per cent. On the same day, a poll carried out by Ireland Thinks and published in the Irish Mail on Sunday had Sinn Féin on 32 points, with Fine Gael on 24 and Fianna Fáil at 17 per cent.
The assembly election in the north is due to take place on or before May 5 next year but, in the south, the Day of Judgment could in theory be delayed until February 2025.
Up to now there was a fairly widespread view that, in order to achieve a stable parliamentary majority, Mary Lou McDonald and her colleagues would have to explore the possibility of coalition with Fianna Fáil, who would doubtless be seeking quite a significant number of cabinet posts as part of any deal that might emerge. But if the surge reflected in the Behaviour & Attitudes survey is maintained, then the cost of coalition would be considerably less. In this context, it is worth noting that Alan Kelly, leader of the Irish Labour Party (which currently has seven out of 160 Dáil seats, compared to Sinn Féin’s 37) recently refused to rule out going into government with SF after the next general election.
Interestingly, Sinn Féin’s rise in popularity appears to be mainly due to the party’s social and economic policies rather than a surge in republican/nationalist sentiment. The SF package includes delivering 20,000 social and affordable homes in a year, reducing the state pension age to 65 years from the current 66, reducing childcare costs by two-thirds over two years, cutting rents and getting rid of the Local Property Tax on residential dwellings, making sizeable increases in the number of healthcare staff and hospital beds and introducing a freeze of the carbon tax applied to fossil fuels such as petrol, coal and natural gas.
To help pay for these measures, there would be a removal of tax credits for those earning more than €100,000 Euro (approximately £84,000 in Sterling) a year. An extra three per cent charge called a “Solidarity Tax” would be imposed on individual incomes above €140,000 (approx. £117,300) although it would hardly generate a widespread feeling of solidarity among those higher earners.
The arrival of Sinn Féin in government would have implications for business and commercial interests and Michael Brennan, Political Editor of the Business Post, has carried out an analysis in that context of the Lobbying Register in the Republic of Ireland. In last Sunday’s edition of the paper he reported that, “Sinn Féin has been meeting many of the most influential business groups and lobbyists since the party’s success in last year’s general election.” He continues that the mantra, “We won’t talk to Sinn Féin”, used to be heard from many business and industry groups but that this has changed because of the party’s growing electoral strength.
Meanwhile, on a separate issue, former leader of Fianna Fáil and ex-taoiseach Bertie Ahern has come in for criticism in unionist and loyalist circles for saying that people “in East Belfast and in the ghettos” as well as other areas “haven’t got a clue” about the Northern Ireland Protocol. Don’t be too hard on him folks, he deserves a share of the credit for the generally peaceful era that followed the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement.
You should know that he has his own particular way with words, commonly known as “Bertiespeak”, but, when it comes to the north, his heart is in the right place.
Email: Ddebre1@aol.com; Twitter: @DdeBreadun
