In his first party conference address as UUP leader, Doug Beattie has called for changes to Stormont’s rules “to create a working power-sharing government with a working power-sharing opposition”.
How would that work, exactly? Beattie did not elaborate and perhaps a conference speech was not the occasion to get into specifics.
The most straightforward rule change would be mandatory coalition of only the largest parties from each designation, including the ‘other’ designation if it grows beyond a certain size.
However, that could merely replace one dysfunctional marriage with two: a UUP-Sinn Féin executive and a DUP-SDLP opposition, for example.
The current three-way split in the unionist vote raises another awkward scenario. What if the largest unionist party held only a minority of its designation’s seats?
This is relevant to the next most obvious approach: requiring only one party from each designation, providing they all add up to a majority of assembly seats.
Expectations under this system would include the SDLP as the smaller party of nationalism joining the DUP and UUP; or the UUP as the smaller party of unionism joining the SDLP and Sinn Féin.
Would voters accept the exclusion of the largest party from one designation? Would any smaller party go into office as a mudguard for the opposite designation? Smaller parties would be crucified by their larger rivals over every executive action and inaction.
One way to legitimise these kind of coalitions would be to run joint tickets. This could involve the UUP, SDLP and Alliance making a pre-election pledge to govern together and campaigning for transfers.
Joint tickets are not unusual in coalition systems and Northern Ireland has taken several steps towards them.
Former UUP leader Mike Nesbitt clearly hoped for a joint ticket with the SDLP with his “vote Mike, get Colum” slogan in 2016. UUP and SDLP voters transfer to each other’s parties in significant numbers.
The DUP and Sinn Féin came remarkably close to declaring themselves a couple after the 2016 assembly election, in response to the UUP, SDLP and Alliance all entering opposition. The big two took a defiant stance of ‘leave and see if we care’, then briefly presented themselves as the natural pairing of responsible government.
Of course, this did not last. Many in the DUP believe the reason Stormont collapsed in early 2017 was because Sinn Féin felt vulnerable to SDLP opposition and the accusation of being unionism’s mudguard.
The joint ticket approach has the practical flaw of not guaranteeing a joint outcome. If the UUP beat the DUP but its SDLP partner came second to Sinn Féin, then what?
All the above approaches require a degree of compulsory exclusion, or forcing parties into opposition, that would represent a dramatic break with how modern devolution has operated. Introducing such a change would require a cross-party consensus that is unlikely to be forthcoming.
In his conference speech, Beattie spoke of restoring the Good Friday Agreement to its “factory settings”, yet those settings did not deliver stable UUP-SDLP government, or more correctly a stable UUP. There were three suspensions and an ultimate collapse in three years, while the DUP and Sinn Féin stirred trouble from the sidelines.
The rules have changed and evolved considerably since, arguably taking Stormont far closer to Beattie’s idea could be achieved by a grand redesign of power-sharing. Forms of official and unofficial opposition have been introduced, which the UUP, SDLP and Alliance can enter in any combination.
New Decade, New Approach secured cross-party consensus for a Stormont stability law. Once this passes through Westminster, where it is supposedly in its final stages, the executive can survive for up to six months if one of the big two parties walks out, and for a further six months after an election while a new executive is formed.
Tweaking this law so an executive could survive for its full term might be all that is required to turn mandatory coalition into de facto voluntary coalition. It could also be the only change on this scale it is politically feasible to attempt.
The concern with creating such a ‘voluntary-mandatory’ coalition is that it might motivate the two largest parties to try driving each other to quit, with each hoping to stay on in sole charge. But the DUP and Sinn Féin have both demonstrated a need for mudguards that suggests this is not inevitable. Neither wants to be exposed in office for the electorate to judge. That is the strongest threat the UUP, SDLP and Alliance have to effect reform.
