Nothing matters more in politics than perception: particularly when it comes to political parties.
The UUP, for example, went through Reg Empey, Tom Elliott, Mike Nesbitt, Robin Swann and Steve Aiken without ever shaking off the perception (among its core vote, broader unionism and the media) that it wasn’t worth wasting a vote on.
Robin Swann was ridiculed when he was leader of the party (because the party itself was relentlessly ridiculed): but as soon as he stood down from the role and took on the much more difficult role of health minister during a pandemic, his approval ratings soared.
Each new leader of the UUP between 2005 and May 2021 tried to reshape and reinvent the party.
Did their best to make it seem new, interesting and relevant. Some were woeful media performers. Some weren’t.
Some seemed to have the pulse of the party, but only for short periods.
Some had blips of electoral encouragement, but all failed to deliver the sort of breakthrough required to have the party taken seriously again by voters.
Some had opportunities to land substantial blows on the DUP, yet always pulled their punches at the last moment.
None of them came to the job at a moment which seems so dangerous for the DUP.
That doesn’t mean Doug Beattie will be able to shift the perception of the party overnight, but it should mean that electoral progress is now his to lose.
Because the key to success for a party in the UUP’s position lies in conveying the impression that a vote for it is no longer a wasted vote.
It doesn’t matter how useless and fractious the DUP looks right now. The only thing that matters is whether people who have been voting for the party since November 2003 (when it eclipsed the UUP in the assembly elections) are prepared to stop voting for it and give their vote to someone else instead?
It’s too early to make the call on that question. Beattie is certainly having a honeymoon (which no UUP leader has enjoyed since David Trimble replaced James Molyneaux in September 1995), but that’s not enough.
Let’s face it, if DUP voters are cross with the party for ‘going soft’ aren’t they more likely to drift towards the TUV?
Maybe: yet the willingness to make that journey may depend on whether they think a vote for Allister is more likely to increase the chances of a Sinn Féin first minister and minister of justice.
TUV has one seat now. How likely is it to increase that to 27-plus? Similarly, the UUP requires an extra 17-plus seats to put the keys of the first minister’s office in Beattie’s grasp. How likely is that?
With no disrespect to either Doug or Jim, I’m pretty sure even their most ardent supporters wouldn’t expect either of them to make those sorts of gains in an election which must be held by next May (and maybe sooner). Which is good news for the DUP: but only if a majority of unionist voters actually prioritise keeping the first minister’s office above and beyond the negative perception they presently have of the party.
Let’s go back to that assembly election in 2003.
The balance between pro-agreement and anti-agreement unionism in the 1998 assembly was 30 to 28.
It was a small enough margin to encourage unhappy UUP/PUP voters to risk shifting to the DUP five years later.
A decision made easier by the fact that Sinn Féin had just 18 seats and was not expected to surge ahead.
Today, the DUP has 28 seats – just one ahead of Sinn Fein, which is also leading the DUP in opinion polls.
The UUP/TUV/and independent Claire Sugden have 12 between them.
Those figures will worry voters tempted to shift from the DUP, because, unlike 2003, there is now the distinct possibly of Sinn Féin nudging ahead if the unionist vote shreds.
The DUP is currently drunk on score-settling and grudge-matching and with enough leaks to fill a reservoir.
Edwin Poots was only in the job five minutes before he suffered his first defeat in a party group meeting.
It got much worse yesterday in a truly calamitous day for both him and the DUP.
But whoever now succeeds Poots as leader, can they beat the curse of perception?
