Opinion

Newton Emerson: How the sea border affects our daily lives will shape the political fallout

Newton Emerson

Newton Emerson

Newton Emerson writes a twice-weekly column for The Irish News and is a regular commentator on current affairs on radio and television.

<span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: sans-serif, Arial, Verdana, &quot;Trebuchet MS&quot;; ">The signal from Amazon, the de facto online monopoly retailer, is of its Brexit issues here being rapidly ironed out</span>
The signal from Amazon, the de facto online monopoly retailer, is of its Brexit issues here being rapidly ironed out The signal from Amazon, the de facto online monopoly retailer, is of its Brexit issues here being rapidly ironed out

The political impact of the sea border will depend heavily on how noticeable it is in everyday life.

Online shopping could be its most aggravating manifestation, although Amazon does not appear to think so. It has just built a new logistics hub in Belfast, sold it to a Swiss investment bank for £27 million and leased it back for 15 years, all to serve the Northern Ireland market.

This year Amazon also opened its first warehouse in the Republic - previously it posted everything from Britain. This might herald an all-Ireland operation, with the ‘.uk’ branding dropped, which would certainly be noticeable. But for now the signal from Amazon, the de facto online monopoly retailer, is of its Brexit issues here being rapidly ironed out.

The sea border might have a more profound effect on the High Street, in terms of higher prices and reduced choice, but this will be less obvious than clicking on goods on a screen and being told they cannot be delivered.

This week’s unexpectedly comprehensive UK-EU agreement looks like it will prevent any dramatic disruption to supermarkets or to businesses trading back and forth between Britain in general. The longer-term outcome, anticipated in the agreement, is of supplies of certain foods - meat products in particular - switching from Britain to producers in Northern Ireland, the Republic and the wider EU.

Unionist and nationalist representatives have already proclaimed this to be either the end of the union or the start of a united Ireland. It might be a significant economic development with powerful symbolic potential. But its psychological impact would be rather subtle, annoying only to the sort of person who objects to flags on packaging - in fact, annoying only half of such people, while delighting the other half. How many of the rest of us pay any attention to such things?

Switching away from suppliers in Britain may not be necessary if there is a UK-EU trade deal. While that prospect appears to be receding under the current year-end deadline, there will be a deal eventually.

The sea border had not been discussed as a nuisance to travellers until the European Commission produced a document at talks last week, insisting arrivals from Britain comply with the full range of customs and excise laws applicable to passengers from non-EU countries.

Headlines promptly appeared about Brussels officials wanting to check everyone’s luggage.

The EU document was undoubtedly a negotiating tactic, yet even it conceded “most prohibitions and restrictions are only relevant for professional traders”, with only “some” relevant for individual travellers.

We await details on whether this week’s agreement has mitigated that further.

Under existing rules, the UK as an EU member imposes effectively no limit on a traveller’s personal effects, including their car.

On arrival, you simply walk or drive through the green ‘nothing to declare’ channel that will apparently soon be available at Northern Ireland’s ports and airports.

The only exceptions are for pets, plants, animal products and firearms, the latter perhaps relevant if returning from a meeting with the Archbishop of Canterbury.

Only the pet sea border will be a new restriction for Northern Ireland, replacing a pet land border that was never enforced.

Personal effects are defined as used items. The duty and declaration free limit for bringing newly purchased items into the EU is €430 per passenger journey. The big question for sea border travellers is whether this is our new limit for shopping trips to Britain.

There are also specific limits within this on tobacco and alcohol, although these may be a minor annoyance, as the North Channel has never been a booze cruise route.

However, if even the slightest restrictions for travellers apply, anyone might be inspected and everyone will wonder if they might be stopped.

UK Border Force checks around one person in 350 passing through the non-EU green lanes at Heathrow. Selection of passengers is intelligence-led rather than random, with no targets for numbers searched or goods seized. The last independent report on this operation found its interaction with the public to be “professional and courteous”, with discretion shown to those exceeding duty limits. As the EU has considered that good enough to protect the single market at its largest UK passenger entry point, nothing more should be required for the post-Brexit sea border.

Would that be acceptable to the public in Northern Ireland?

We may be about to find out.