Opinion

Alex Kane: Second time around will be much harder than the first lockdown

Alex Kane

Alex Kane

Alex Kane is an Irish News columnist and political commentator and a former director of communications for the Ulster Unionist Party.

<span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: sans-serif, Arial, Verdana, &quot;Trebuchet MS&quot;; ">This intimacy with the virus will shake the complacency out of a lot of people</span>
This intimacy with the virus will shake the complacency out of a lot of people This intimacy with the virus will shake the complacency out of a lot of people

The executive (like Boris Johnson) may not be describing the latest batch of regulations and restrictions as a lockdown, but it's pretty close to being one.

But it will an entirely different kind of lockdown this time. The novelty of the original one has worn off. Rather than six months of unseasonably warm weather (when people rediscovered the joys of walking and began projects in the house and garden) we'll have the colder, wetter, darker days (and longer nights) of autumn/winter.

Something else will be different. During the first lockdown millions of people didn't know anyone who had contracted the virus, let alone anyone who had died from it. Indeed, that lack of intimacy with coronavirus encouraged an increasingly widespread belief that governments were overreacting to a supposed pandemic. It seems likely, though, that more of us will know people with the virus. We'll be aware of increasing numbers of people having to self-isolate. We will probably know someone who has died from it. We will have members of our own family ill at home; or others self-isolating with us because they have been in close contact with someone who has it.

READ MORE: William Scholes: Pope's pandemic encyclical a counter-cultural call to 'common belonging'Opens in new window ]

This intimacy with the virus will shake the complacency out of a lot of people: and that will be no bad thing. In March and April the predictions were dire, almost as if the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse were expected to gallop through our lounges, scything all before them. When that didn't happen the fear vanished and resentment set in. But along with that resentment came a new strain of concern, a sense that governments were more intent on depriving us of personal freedom than encouraging a stand-up-and-fight strategy.

That argument never made sense to me. Why would governments around the world take the massive economic hits associated with lockdown - not to mention the huge sums pumped into furlough schemes and bailouts - just to lessen the personal freedoms of their citizens? And why would millions of people who wear seat belts, permit their children to be given a series of injections from birth, fit fire alarms, take out various forms of insurance, don't rage against CCTVs everywhere, and allow their phones to keep track of them and their children, assume that their government is only now removing individual freedoms?

The latest restrictions are intended to bring down the rise in the R number - which began to rise again when restrictions were eased a few weeks ago. But if the number does come down won't there be a tendency for the complacency to return (particularly as the Christmas season kicks in)? And if it doesn't go down isn't it likely that a new sense of fatalism will set in and people will begin to think that, since they're probably going to get it anyway, they may as well enjoy themselves for as long as they can?

Alex Kane
Alex Kane Alex Kane

The only thing that will change the mood is hard evidence of a vaccine that works. In March we were told it was probably only six months away. Now we are told it could be well into next year. The present restrictions are intended, according to Boris Johnson, to last for six months. That's an extraordinarily long time to expect most people to obey the mask rules, the home visiting restrictions (especially when cold nights will limit the use of the garden) and a raft of other regulations. So I expect them to be breached, early and regularly.

The mental toll will also be enormous, particularly for those still classified as 'vulnerable', as well as the few million who live alone. It will also be hard on others living with their families and maybe even able to work from home. As I noted in a previous column - when I recounted my encounters with Mr D - depression can hit anyone at any time and it can be relentless in its determination to beat you into submission.

Six months of restrictions and curfews, with limited opportunities to enjoy parks and gardens, will be enormously tough for people who were already experiencing difficulty; not to mention people who may have managed reasonably well first time around. I see no evidence that Johnson or the devolved administrations have built that factor into their strategy.

One thing seems clear, though: it is going to be much tougher than it has been. More than ever we are going to have to work together and look after each other.