Opinion

Deaglán de Bréadún: Dublin's three-party coalition will take time to settle into office

Having waited so long to become Taoiseach, Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin will want to defy predictions that his party's coalition government with Fine Gael and the Greens could collapse within months. Picture by Niall Carson/PA Wire
Having waited so long to become Taoiseach, Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin will want to defy predictions that his party's coalition government with Fine Gael and the Greens could collapse within months. Picture by Niall Carson/PA Wire Having waited so long to become Taoiseach, Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin will want to defy predictions that his party's coalition government with Fine Gael and the Greens could collapse within months. Picture by Niall Carson/PA Wire

THERE is a fairly-widespread expectation that the current government in Dublin may not last very long. As a friend said to me the other day: "They'll be gone in six months."

Dear, oh dear, that wouldn't please Micheál Martin. After nine years as Fianna Fáil leader and head of the opposition, he has finally ascended to the position of Taoiseach and will want to hold onto it until well beyond next February.

Indeed, the agreement is that Fianna Fáil will have the top job for two-and-a-half years of a five-year Dáil term before handing it over on December 15 2022 to Fine Gael, who will presumably still be led by Leo Varadkar.

But what are the chances of this government lasting five years? The three-party coalition of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Greens has gotten off to a rocky start in many ways.

Micheál Martin got a hard time over failing to appoint the party's deputy leader and chief coalition negotiator, Dara Calleary, to a senior ministerial position.

This was particularly resented in Calleary's Mayo constituency and by Fianna Fáilers throughout the west of Ireland, because the region had nobody with a full cabinet post.

A further controversy erupted when it was revealed that the incoming Minister for Agriculture, Barry Cowen (brother of former Taoiseach, Brian) had committed a drink-driving offence four years ago. It wasn't what you'd call a hanging matter but it dominated the news.

The saga dragged for a fortnight until Cowen was dismissed by Micheál Martin who replaced him with, wait for it, Dara Calleary.

Meanwhile the Greens had their own troubles. On the last day before the summer break, one of their junior ministers abstained in a vote on proposed government legislation and another Green TD voted against.

They have both been deprived of speaking rights for two months but, since the Dáil has taken a six-week break, the penalty will only last two weeks. Talk about a pat on the wrist.

Actually, I'm something of a dissident when it comes to predictions of an early demise for this administration.

A three-party coalition was always going to take a while to settle into office. Remember that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are descended politically from sworn enemies who were shooting each other in cold blood in the Irish Civil War.

If you had predicted in former times that they would end up sharing power, your judgment would have been categorised as wacko.

As for the Greens, this is only their second time to participate in an Irish government and, besides, stern discipline and whipping your TDs strictly into line are not features you would regard as central to Green culture.

The only one of the three coalition participants that might benefit from an early return to the ballot-box is Fine Gael, whose poll-ratings have improved in the last few months.

As caretaker Taoiseach while a new government was being negotiated, Leo Varadkar was considered to have responded well to the pandemic crisis from the time of his landmark speech of March 12 on the issue, which coincided with the annual Taoiseach's visit to Washington.

The results of eight opinion polls since then show Fine Gael ahead in the first seven, getting an average of 34.75 points compared with its 20.9 per cent support-level in the February 8 general election.

Sinn Féin scored an average of 27.1, an increase on its election showing of 24.5 and that party takes first place in the latest survey at time of writing with 30 points, one ahead of Fine Gael whose surge may be about to decline.

The average for Fianna Fáil over the same period is 15.1 compared with its general election figure of 22.2 although the latest survey shows an increase to 20 points.

The average for the Greens is 6.75 as against 7.1 per cent on election day.

Another interesting feature of the post-election scene is the number of people who tell me they voted for Sinn Féin this time.

Indeed, there is a widespread assumption that SF has a fair chance of leading the next government, especially if a general election takes place soon, which is another reason why Fianna Fáil will want to delay the contest for as long as possible.

Ddebre1@aol.com

Twitter @DdeBreadun