Opinion

Alex Kane: Sinn Fein must be wary of growing boredom among southern voters over Irish unity issue

Alex Kane

Alex Kane

Alex Kane is an Irish News columnist and political commentator and a former director of communications for the Ulster Unionist Party.

<span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: sans-serif, Arial, Verdana, &quot;Trebuchet MS&quot;; ">Fianna F&aacute;il and Fine Gael may soon conclude that a second election could see Mary Lou McDonald's Sinn F&eacute;in perform even better</span>
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael may soon conclude that a second election could see Mary Lou McDonald's Sinn Féin perform even better Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael may soon conclude that a second election could see Mary Lou McDonald's Sinn Féin perform even better

I think it's a fairly safe bet that neither Leo Varadkar nor Micheál Martin could tour the country and fill huge rooms with huge audiences.

Indeed, I'm not even sure either of them could fill their own front parlours if it were required.

Yet that's exactly what Mary Lou McDonald and Sinn Féin's leadership team is doing. It's a good way of sustaining the momentum for another election, with lots of media coverage (helpfully offsetting the criticism from their opponents) and very useful footage to use in new party election broadcasts further down the line.

Crucially, it's probably spooking Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, who may soon conclude that a second election could see Sinn Féin do even better. And they may also conclude that an 'ourselves alone' deal between them - one which excludes Sinn Féin - could play very badly at a future election. While Sinn Féin has no fear of a second election, it probably accepts that there is a limit to how well it could do; a limit that would still leave it well short of being able to build a government around McDonald as taoiseach.

What does it do, then? Maybe see if it can try to nudge its way into a government with a fairly low key bid on Irish unity; in other words, not insisting on a set date for a border poll which could cause problems on both sides of the border. Sinn Féin's Matt Carthy said on Sunday that the party would push for a 'junior minister for Irish unity' if it forms part of the next government: "We will have a key unit in the Department of the Taoiseach, and maybe a sub-committee, as well as an Oireachtas committee and a citizens' assembly."

Important for Sinn Féin in terms of proving its commitment to unity, but still fairly modest in terms of pushing the 'project.' But is it modest enough for Fianna Fáil to consider a rethink, avoid a second election and open the door to a coalition with Sinn Féin, with Martin as taoiseach?

One thing Sinn Féin has to be wary of is the potential of a growing boredom with the unity issue in the south. While polls indicate that there is an appetite for a united Ireland at some point, the same polls suggest that it's an issue which ranks way behind health, housing, homelessness, pension age, rents and jobs in lists of priorities for voters across all parties.

Sinn Féin also knows that the final call on a border poll is not in the gift of an Irish government, which is a key reason why no Irish government, unless led by McDonald, is going to bump the unity project above all the other issues listed by a substantial majority of all votes as priorities (health, housing, homelessness and pension age, for example, are the top four issues for 66 per cent). The party also knows that young people in Dublin looking for affordable housing, rents and mortgages, probably don't spend much time thinking about partition or 'A Nation Once Again.' So yes, Sinn Féin did well at the election: but their success was as an alternative to the socio/economic policies of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, not a sudden surge in demand for a united Ireland.

And therein lies the key dilemma for the party. Thanks to Brexit and shifting electoral dynamics in Northern Ireland there has probably never been a time when support for a united Ireland among NI voters has been so potentially high. And thanks to a political establishment in the south which has made such a dog's dinner on a raft of key issues, there has never been a better time for Sinn Féin to become a key player in an Irish government. But, as I say, the reasons for electoral success in both jurisdictions are not the same: which means McDonald will have to play a much cannier hand than she would have been expecting to play just three months ago.

I don't think the likelihood of her becoming taoiseach is particularly high, even after a second election. But I do think Sinn Féin is very keen to be a coalition partner as soon as possible. The ongoing tour is part of that process; as is the suggestion of a junior minister for Irish unity (and they might be keen on Carthy in that role). One thing seems certain, though, excluding Sinn Féin from government is becoming increasingly difficult for Martin and Varadkar, particularly while it remains the largest party.