Three elections in the north last year, two in the south. How many this year and what difference will they make?
The two in the south didn’t produce anything like the dramatic results in the north, nor signal any major shift in opinion, but this year we do know for certain that there will be a general election in the Republic which needs to produce a change of government or Micheál Martin’s a goner.
We even have a good idea when the election will take place. The taoiseach fancies May, partly because Easter is smack in the middle of April and that would inevitably disrupt campaigning for an election on any date that month. On the other hand Micheál Martin could pull the plug on Varadkar at any time. Some of his backbenchers are urging him to do it in February after Johnson ‘gets Brexit done’ on January 31 because St Patrick’s Day is the middle of March and virtually the whole Irish political class decamps to the US. Besides, Fianna Fáil is now getting the blame for keeping Fine Gael in power despite its growing list of unpopular mistakes in housing and health; so, sooner rather than later Martin’s critics say. Martin believes the longer he keeps Varadkar in power the more the government is likely to begin to fall apart.
Whatever the date, opinion polls indicate the result will be uncannily similar to 2016 with neither Fianna Fáil nor Fine Gael reaching anywhere near a majority. At present Fine Gael is two seats ahead: 47- 45, nowhere near the 80 required to govern. There will have to be a coalition or another confidence and supply deal. This election is make or break for Martin. If he can’t get Fianna Fáil ahead of Varadkar it’s curtains. The party will dump him. Martin will be the only Fianna Fáil leader never to be taoiseach.
The crucial question then is which parties or Independents will form the inevitable coalition government? Sinn Féin is unquestionably the third largest party, but its poll figures oscillate wildly between 13 per cent and 20 per cent. Recently the party did well in by-elections. Does that signal a recovery from the disastrous results in local government and European elections, or was it a flash in the pan, or down to local circumstances? SF look likely to lose TDs but they will still be the third largest block. Both Varadkar and Martin have repeatedly stated they will not go into coalition with SF, but if they can’t gather up enough TDs from the Greens, Labour and motley Independents neither will have a choice.
Meanwhile, if we have an election here in February it will also be a question of who gets ahead, to be potentially first minister. Now that our current proconsul has identified the DUP as the problem would the DUP fancy an election campaign explaining why they refuse to reach a deal? The saying goes, if you’re explaining, you’re losing. If the results of the general election are anything to go by, the flight from the UUP and DUP to Alliance will become a stampede. Surely the correlation between the 17 per cent drop in Sir Jeffrey ‘I could live with 40,000 job losses’ Donaldson’s vote share, and the 17 per cent rise in his Alliance opponent’s gives pause for thought. The direct switch of Lady Sylvia Hermon’s UUP voters to Alliance in North Down to stymie the DUP must have caused consternation.
Well, up to a point Lord Copper. That’s all very well in a British general election, but in an assembly election the DUP will return to what it does best; fight a sectarian election to stay ahead of SF. Last time the DUP said a vote for the UUP was a vote for Martin McGuinness as first minister. This time Alliance will be the Lundy. They’ll say a vote for Alliance is a vote for Michelle O’Neill. Plus ça change. Happy New Year!
