Opinion

Newton Emerson: DUP faces tough election sell on the doorsteps

Newton Emerson

Newton Emerson

Newton Emerson writes a twice-weekly column for The Irish News and is a regular commentator on current affairs on radio and television.

Boris Johnson decided to throw the DUP 'under the bus' to secure his deal with the EU
Boris Johnson decided to throw the DUP 'under the bus' to secure his deal with the EU Boris Johnson decided to throw the DUP 'under the bus' to secure his deal with the EU

THE DUP has finally been thrown under the bus and all it can do now is cause a bump in the road.

The EU-UK deal is unlikely to pass without unionist support, requiring the prime minister to request a Brexit extension, press Labour for an election and try again.

However, this deal is the shape of Brexit on which a general election or confirmatory referendum will be fought.

The DUP faces the prospect of the UK heading to the polls to 'get Brexit done' with the subtext 'despite the DUP'.

Solidarity shown so far in Britain towards the union could be turned on its head, as unionist voters would notice with dismay.

The DUP would be campaigning to defend the union against a deal it partly negotiated and circumstances it largely caused.

In a general election, it will be asking for renewed influence at Westminster after giving its once-in-a-century influence away.

In a confirmatory referendum, it will be forced to argue for Remain.

Even with our loyal electorate, that is a tough sell on the doorsteps.

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Could the DUP have sold the deal? The tragedy is it should have been able to do so.

Having conceded the principle of a sea border over single market regulations, the hard step had been taken.

The DUP kept Northern Ireland in the UK's customs area but open to the EU, allowing it to benefit from both sides' free trade agreements - a unique best of both worlds scenario.

Theresa May's deal was ditched, the backstop was fundamentally changed and Stormont consent was added, all of which the EU had ruled out.

Instead of claiming victory, the DUP seems set to repeat its behaviour after the Good Friday Agreement: a temper tantrum, followed by several years of working the arrangements in a sulk, until it can claim it has tweaked them enough to own them.

The difference is that the Good Friday Agreement really was a DUP defeat.

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Stormont consent appears to be the rock on which DUP support for a deal foundered.

It must be suspected that if the DUP could not agree a deal without a unionist veto, it never seriously agreed to anything.

Raising consent has highlighting the logic of simple majority voting in an era where unionists and nationalists are both minorities.

The Brexit deal blurs the line between simple majority votes and the petition of concern, because it cannot rewrite the Good Friday Agreement.

However, a St Andrews-style rewrite is certainly coming and the petition's days looked numbered.

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar went further this week, telling the Dail he wants an end to the petition and to MLAs having to designate as unionist, nationalist or other.

Designation is used to appoint an executive, so unless the need to designate was switched from individual MLAs to parties, the Taoiseach was effectively proposing the end of mandatory power-sharing.

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Early leaks of the EU-UK deal suggested it granted nationalists a veto over the new arrangements as they could collapse the assembly by walking out.

However, the final text contains the phrase "present and voting", indicating that walking out would simply cause nationalists to lose their votes.

The assembly can recall itself for a one-off session when 30 MLAs request it, as the DUP has reminded everyone this week by using the mechanism to grandstand against abortion and same-sex marriage.

If unionists could not muster 30 supporters for a recall, they would not want a Brexit vote anyway.

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Pressure to restore Stormont is going to ramp up sharply now it has been put at the heart of a Brexit deal.

The current statutory deadline of January 13 still looks implausible but resumption some time next year is a realistic goal.

Once the Westminster confidence and supply deal is officially dead, the DUP will desperately need a return of devolution and a key nationalist objection will have been addressed.

It is striking that Sinn Féin has given the Brexit deal a cautious welcome when it would have been easy to reject it.

Billions of pounds for Northern Ireland was on offer from London, Dublin and Brussels if the DUP had backed the deal.

Having been put on the table, that cash and kudos is still available for those who prove cooperative.

It would be the final punchline to this stage of the Brexit process if Sinn Féin returned to Stormont triumphantly bearing what was meant to be the DUP's next bribe.

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There was much republican pearl-clutching after the DUP met 'senior loyalists' to reassure them on the party's Brexit proposals.

The meeting followed media reports of loyalist rumblings over the DUP's support for a regulatory sea border.

Quite apart from the hypocrisy of Sinn Féin representatives and supporters complaining about paramilitary engagement, this was a strange follow-up to constant republican calls for the DUP to show leadership within its community. For once, was that not what it was doing?