In these times of great uncertainty, few things can be taken for granted. But one certainty that remains is the persistently cynical and contradictory nature of pronouncements from southern Irish political figures on the issue of Irish unity.
Former Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern, earlier this year labelled calls for an Irish unity referendum as ‘irresponsible’. Two years ago, he suggested a referendum would be ‘dangerous.’
Alas, he has also had this to say on the subject: “I believe that the sooner we engage in the process of addressing Irish unity, in all its complexities, with all of its challenges, and the many opportunities it will present, the sooner the reality will occur.”
That was in 2008.
Confused? That’s understandable.
The truth is that aul’ Bertie is far from alone.
Leo Varadkar is on record as saying he expects to see a united Ireland at some point in the future, but insisted that it would not be achieved through "assimilation or the crude majoritarianism in a border poll."
That ‘crude majoritarianism’ would be the consent principle which lies at the very centre of the Good Friday Agreement. The taoiseach has yet to clarify if a majority is only to be deemed crude if it votes for unity instead of union.
And it isn’t just mainstream southern Irish politicians.
One of the most prominent media voices in the Republic, Olivia O’Leary, last week used her RTE Radio 1 Drivetime slot to suggest that the hard won friendship between Britain and Ireland today is “being battered” by Irish people raising the question of a united Ireland.
For many in the southern establishment, there is not and never will be a right time to discuss Irish unity. They are stuck in the past, glibly pronouncing that unity is strictly a manana topic, always for tomorrow, and only in the event of unionists going unicorn and consciously deciding en masse and in advance to become nationalists.
Outside of Sinn Féin and with the notable exception of Fianna Fáil Senator Mark Daly, finding southern politicians actively and meaningfully interested in beginning to plan and work for Irish unity remains an exercise in futility.
Yet there is clear evidence that the winds of change have been blowing across Ireland on this issue for many years.
Opinion polls continue to reflect growing consciousness and support for unity, and interest in political forums, conferences, podcasts and articles on the subject provide further evidence that change is happening.
Last week, a new paper, ‘The EU and Irish Unity’, was launched in the European Parliament. Its authors, barrister Mark Bassett and QUB law lecturer, Colin Harvey, underlined the case that unity provides the optimum means of mitigating the negative impact of Brexit and are rightly dismissive of those endlessly bleating about this not being the right time to discuss Irish unity.
At the launch, Fine Gael MEP Sean Kelly remarked that Brexit has “changed the attitude and culture” in the Republic about Irish unity, remarking how “people [were] now talking about a united Ireland that were never considering it five years ago.”
He’s right.
Pre-eminent figures in southern Irish society have been raising their voices in favour of planning for Irish unity for some time now.
Crucially, these are individuals who cannot easily be dismissed as ‘the usual suspects’, including popular mainstream voices like the leading economist, David McWilliams.
Planning for unity is now a national imperative. It does not mean a border poll has to be called in the immediate future, but it should involve political leaders acting responsibly by exploring ways of planning and preparing for unity whilst explicitly acknowledging realities along the way.
And there is no greater reality than this.
When Irish unity happens, it will be in spite of the opposition of more than 45 per cent of the Northern Irish electorate. Unionists will, for the most part, remain unionists until the point at which a border poll is lost. The sooner that reality is accepted by all, the better.