Opinion

Deaglán de Bréadún: DUP would be wise to facilitate a measured Brexit ahead of the next election

Arlene Foster in Dublin on Wednesday evening. Picture by Brian Lawless/PA Wire
Arlene Foster in Dublin on Wednesday evening. Picture by Brian Lawless/PA Wire Arlene Foster in Dublin on Wednesday evening. Picture by Brian Lawless/PA Wire

Winston Churchill defined success in politics as a two-stage process which involves the capacity to forecast what will happen in the coming days, months or year and, in conjunction with that, “the ability afterwards to explain why it didn’t happen”.

He could have been talking about journalism: indeed he worked in the business himself before becoming a politician, rather like the current occupant of Number 10 Downing Street, who wrote a book entitled ‘The Churchill Factor: How One Man Made History’, published by Hodder & Stoughton in 2014. At the time, Boris Johnson was still Mayor of London and we all remember how he was left hanging in mid-air from a wire during the Olympic Games – although now Brexit arguably has everyone dangling over the abyss.

The prospects for a deal over Brexit have been going up and down like a yo-yo – or like Boris Johnson on a wire.

One day it looks like London and Brussels are getting closer to an agreement but, 24 hours later, there seems to be another stand-off. It was encouraging when the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker told Sky News: “I think we can have a deal.” But nearly every time you see Boris on TV he is acting like a fellow in campaign mode. Indeed, a senior figure on the Labour side of the fence told me last week that he is expecting a general election in mid-November which he hopes will result in Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister at the head of an anti-Tory alliance.

If a Brexit settlement somehow finally emerges, it will obviously centre on Northern Ireland and its place in the new order of things. The obstacles may seem insurmountable but they pale by comparison with the issues in the peace process back in 1998. A primary lesson from those days is that everybody needs to come away from the table with something they can point to as an achievement. What Dublin and all nationalists (as well as a good many others) want, is a border without customs posts and checkpoints, whereas unionists need certainty that the north’s constitutional status as part of the United Kingdom will not be undermined.

As I write, I cannot recall a single politician from any government in mainland Europe who has espoused the cause of Irish unity. This is all about money, trade and quality of goods. It’s not a Trojan Horse to create a United Ireland.

This column has previously noted, for example, that goods certified as having been produced in Northern Cyprus – currently under the control of Turkey, which is outside the EU – are allowed to enter EU markets through the Greek Cypriot part of the island without customs duties. Certification ensures that the products are not being routed through Northern Cyprus from another location.

Given the decline in its influence at Westminster, the DUP would be wise to facilitate a measured deal ahead of the next UK general election. Meanwhile, the EU should avoid hyping-up Brexiteer sentiment in the UK. The carry-on over the press conference in Luxembourg was a gift to Little Englanders. Whatever you think of Bojo, he is prime minister of a sovereign state and should be treated with maximum courtesy and consideration. My message, which I can’t translate into Luxembourgish, is as follows: Cop yourselves on, folks.

Meanwhile, the thought occurs that, given the inept and disorganised manner in which Britain’s exit from the EU has been handled, how would they deal with a United Ireland? It is possible that, at some future stage, referendums in the two parts of this island may come up with majorities in favour of a 32-county independent state. Divorce proceedings would then ensue but how would they be dealt with in the House of Commons, not to mention the Lords? Would the courts be drawn into the story, as with Brexit? A smooth transition? Not very likely.

On a happier note, it is good to hear newspapers produced in Belfast now being quoted regularly in the morning review of the print media on RTE Radio One. In far too many cases, the two parts of this island fail to look over the garden wall to see how life is proceeding for the next-door neighbour. Thankfully, things are starting to look up on this score.

Ddebre1@aol.com