Generally speaking, elections in Northern Ireland aren't usually interesting.
The name of the successful unionist/nationalist party may occasionally change yet we tend to know from the outset who will win.
But the European and council elections in May were genuinely interesting, with the UUP losing the seat it had held since the first Euro election in 1979, and Alliance also recording its best vote and greatest number of councillors. It's now beginning to look like the pending general election could also be interesting.
Much will depend on the timing; whether it comes before or after the UK leaves the EU. An election before will be a Remain vs Leave battle, with the SDLP/Alliance/Greens and some smaller groupings wondering if cooperation can wrest seats from the DUP and SF. The SDLP is desperate to win seats in its own right (easier to hold at a subsequent election), while Alliance want to build on the 'surge' that saw it do so well in May. So, cooperation could be difficult.
Both parties have, in the past, expressed concerns about election pacts; yet both acknowledge that returning the same 10 Leavers and 7 Abstentionists doesn't help NI's case; and there's clearly a handful of seats where cooperation between them would be crucial to the result. Will they explore those opportunities?
Sinn Féin will be under pressure, too. The party, unusually, does have tensions trickling through to the public domain and doesn't seem entirely sure where the next electoral pressure will come from. A pre-exit election is a little more difficult for it, because Remain parties will say that at such a pivotal moment - when a hung parliament could still be a possibility - voting for SF may actually just strengthen the Leave hand in the House of Commons. That said, if the 'unity project' remains the priority, does SF have any particular interest in stopping Leave?
Unlike the SDLP - which has, at least, the scent of victory in South Belfast and Foyle - the UUP doesn't appear to have a chance anywhere. Does that mean it considers a pact with the DUP? It certainly appeals to some sections of the party, yet what would be gained from a pact? A free run in Fermanagh/South Tyrone is, at best, only a 50/50 bet and it's certain that the DUP would refuse to stand aside in one of its present seats. Nor can I see Foster offering the UUP a free run in North Down.
And what of the DUP? The latest LucidTalk poll suggests the party could lose South Belfast, as well as being run very close in both East Belfast and South Antrim (with losses possible). The poll also suggests that North Down, a key target, will probably, if she stands, return Sylvia Hermon. There had been rumours that Arlene Foster was a possible candidate - but running and losing is never a good look for any leader.
The DUP also has to consider the possibility that, as well as no gains and at least one loss, it might no longer have the kingmaker role in Parliament; and in the continuing absence of an Assembly that would mean very little clout and profile just 18 months away from Northern Ireland's centenary. So expect a campaign built around maximising the entire pro-Union vote to kill off the argument for a border poll.
In some ways Alliance has the most to prove. A little slippage could be explained away, but any sign that the 'surge' may just have been a one-off blip will be a problem. I don't see the party having a serious expectation in East Belfast if Naomi Long isn't the candidate and I'm not sure it has a big enough hitter in South Antrim. Paula Bradshaw did well for them in South Belfast last time, but it's possible - if she is the candidate - she would lose votes to the much better known Claire Hanna who, I'm pretty sure, will be the candidate. Coming close won't be enough for Alliance; nor will standing still. It needs to keep winning seats.
There is the potential for an interesting election. That's probably why the DUP and Sinn Féin will try and shift the focus to a campaign which will be a border poll in shadow form.
