Opinion

Jim Gibney: Poll shows durable appeal of a united Ireland

Is a border poll on the horizon? Picture by Margaret McLaughlin
Is a border poll on the horizon? Picture by Margaret McLaughlin Is a border poll on the horizon? Picture by Margaret McLaughlin

One of the most interesting features of the recent election in the south, which has not received its due attention in political and media circles, north or south, is the result of a RED C election night exit poll, for RTE and TG4.

It indicates that 77 per cent of the 3,000 people asked support a united Ireland, with 65 per cent polled saying they would vote in favour of a united Ireland if a referendum was held tomorrow.

In the same poll 60 per cent believed it is important to use, promote and protect the Irish language; with high levels of support for resourcing Gaelscoileanna, Irish language television and the language in the Gaeltacht areas.

The very high level of support for a united Ireland and the Irish language is all the more remarkable when the age of the voters is considered, 18-54.

It is clear that the appeal of a united Ireland and the Irish language is not only durable, it is trans-generational.

But it is its durable appeal that will be of primary interest to today’s generation of nationalists and republicans, who are advocating a national unity poll, as legislated for in the Good Friday Agreement, as a peaceful way of bringing about a united Ireland; and who are campaigning for an Irish language Act as a way of embedding the language in northern society. Furthermore, reports compiled by highly-respected and long-established organisations have all encouraged the Irish government to be more proactive with regard to defending and promoting the language.

The exit poll, especially in relation to a united Ireland, should exercise the mind of the Irish government and the leadership of Fianna Fáil in the same way that an emerging nationalist majority in the north (an unforeseen development until a few years ago) has on northern nationalist civic society.

It is this putative majority which is focusing the minds of Sinn Féin and others in organisations like ‘Ireland’s Future’.

That momentum is also positively impacting on the Irish government and on Fianna Fáil and respectively explains Fine Gael running (albeit unsuccessfully) Mark Durkan as one of their EU candidates, and Fianna Fail’s important partnership with the SDLP.

The exit poll is a reflection of the aspiration of a sizeable section of Irish public opinion in the southern state.

The Irish government and Fianna Fáil need to respond to it as they did in relation to marriage equality, abortion reform and divorce.

Both supported referenda to test out public opinion on these issues and were shocked and pleasantly surprised at the scale of support.

The welcome decision by the Irish government to set October as the date for a referendum to change the constitution to allow the people of the north and the Irish diaspora to vote in presidential elections was also in response to a popular mood and the Sinn Féin campaign led by Gerry Adams TD and Seanadoir Niall Ó Donnghaile, (whom I work with).

The Irish government should lead a public and energetic campaign to ensure the presidential referendum is decisively won.

The use of Citizens’ Assemblies to canvass the widest possible opinion before recommending a course of action has served the progressive and liberal agenda well.

It is a model of good practice and the Irish government should establish one to assess the national mood on the practical steps that need to be taken towards a united Ireland.

The Assembly, I believe would make it easier for those unionists, who are reflecting on their views about a united Ireland to take part in the conversation, publicly or privately.

It would also allow nationalists and republicans to display the changes that have taken place in their views on what a new, agreed, Ireland might look like.

In Ireland and Britain we have all learned, through the disaster that is Brexit, how not to handle an issue of such magnitude as leaving the EU. This experience should govern the approach in the run into a unity poll.

A Citizens’ Assembly could be the arena where proposals are made fleshing out the pathway to a referendum poll.

A trial-run if you like, with recommendations, on the steps to be taken towards polling day.

And at the centre of the transition plan would be dialogue on a range of topics: economics, cultural identity, human rights, governmental structures, to name but a few.