Opinion

Deaglán de Bréadún: Who will be Ireland's winners in Euro poll?

There are 11 candidates in the north and 59 in the south contesting this week's elections to the European Parliament
There are 11 candidates in the north and 59 in the south contesting this week's elections to the European Parliament There are 11 candidates in the north and 59 in the south contesting this week's elections to the European Parliament

BY all accounts, Doris Day had a troubled personal life but it didn't stop her presenting a positive public face and bringing a cheery note to our lives.

What a pity we can't find her political counterpart today, to create an upbeat mood.

By way of an antidote to the Brexit imbroglio we could be receiving a message that corresponds with Que Sera, Sera.

And when we feel dispirited looking at the political landscape, our Doris Day reincarnation could remind us that we have sunshine in the morning and the moon at night-time.

Mind you, even our political version of Doris would have to admit feeling, "bothered and bewildered", although certainly not "bewitched", by the European Parliament elections.

For one thing, there are so many candidates: 11 in the north and 59 in the south, including some runners that most of us have never heard of before and possibly never will again.

Having a high profile is especially vital when the field is so crowded.

The "hurlers on the ditch" are predicting that, in the north, Martina Anderson and Diane Dodds will hold onto the first two seats for Sinn Féin and the DUP respectively.

Danny Kennedy is of course hoping to retain the third seat for the UUP but Naomi Long of Alliance Party and SDLP leader Colum Eastwood are strong contenders.

Interestingly, Sinn Féin is urging its supporters to give transfers to candidates who favour remaining in the EU, which should benefit Long and Eastwood.

If the Alliance surge in the local elections is maintained, then the party leader could take the prize.

Assuming Brexit finally goes through, the three northern MEPs will of course lose their jobs.

Allowing for that eventuality, the number of seats in the 26 counties has gone up from 11 to 13 with the final pair in suspension until UK membership of the European Union comes to an end.

Four MEPs will be elected in the Dublin constituency but the only outgoing member to be running again is Sinn Féin's Lynn Boylan.

She topped the poll last time out in 2014 but won't have it so easy on this occasion. For one thing, Independent TD Clare Daly is seeking a move from Leinster House to Strasbourg: her left-wing support-base has much in common with Boylan's and she also has broad appeal outside that sphere because of her performance on controversies over policing, for example.

Former Tánaiste and Justice Minister Frances Fitzgerald is virtually certain to take a seat; her Fine Gael running-mate, former SDLP leader Mark Durkan, can't be nearly so confident although he should benefit from his colleague's transfers.

Fianna Fáil's Barry Andrews is highly likely to get elected. Rising concern about climate change ought to help the Green Party's Ciarán Cuffe.

Labour's Alex White and Independent Senator Alice Mary Higgins, daughter of President Michael D. Higgins, could also spring surprises.

Fianna Fáil emerged with only one MEP last time out but the party's standing has recovered considerably and, in Ireland South, for instance, Cork TD Billy Kelleher is widely-expected to take a seat whilst his party running-mate Malcolm Byrne from Wexford cannot be ruled out either.

Fine Gael are in a strong position and former GAA President Seán Kelly must be considered a shoo-in.

His Fine Gael colleague Deirdre Clune may find it more difficult, with Fine Gael TD Andrew Doyle from Wicklow among those who might replace her.

The good news for Sinn Féin is that, despite her poor showing in last year's presidential election, Liadh Ní Riada seems certain to hold her seat although there will be strong competition from radical Independent TD, Mick Wallace.

Others who should not be ruled out include the Green Party Senator Grace O'Sullivan and leading trade unionist Sheila Nunan of the Labour Party.

Turning finally to the constituency of Midlands North-West, which includes border counties, outgoing MEPs Mairead McGuinness (Fine Gael) and Luke 'Ming' Flanagan (Independent) look set to be re-elected.

Sinn Féin MEP Matt Carthy has been challenged on the basis that he is planning a career-change by running for the Dáil when the next general election is called but his prospects of holding the European seat still look quite good.

Fianna Fáil TD Brendan Smith could take the fourth seat but faces strong competition from the high-profile Maria Walsh of Fine Gael and the colourful Independent, Peter Casey, who performed well in last year's presidential contest.

With some trepidation, here are my forecasts: Naomi Long to win a seat in the north; Dublin to elect one Fine Gael, one Fianna Fail, one Sinn Féin and one Independent (Daly); Ireland South: two Fine Gael, two Fianna Fáil, one Sinn Féin; Midlands North-West: two Fine Gael, one Sinn Féin, 1 Independent (Flanagan).

Overall southern forecast: Fine Gael, five; Fianna Fáil, three; Sinn Féin, three; Independents, two. But don't put money on it.

Ddebre1@aol.com