Opinion

Alex Kane: Everyone calm down, the border problem will be resolved

Alex Kane

Alex Kane

Alex Kane is an Irish News columnist and political commentator and a former director of communications for the Ulster Unionist Party.

The border between the Republic and Northern Ireland in the village of Bridgend, Co Donegal. Picture by Brian Lawless, Press Association
The border between the Republic and Northern Ireland in the village of Bridgend, Co Donegal. Picture by Brian Lawless, Press Association The border between the Republic and Northern Ireland in the village of Bridgend, Co Donegal. Picture by Brian Lawless, Press Association

We're coming to the end of the Jim Trott stage of the Brexit debate on the Irish/Northern Irish border.

For those of you who don't know, Trott is the character in the Vicar of Dibley who responds to every question with a stuttering "no, no, no, no, no, no....Yes." And Yes is what we're going to end up with.

Nobody (apart from an assortment of loons) in London, Dublin, Belfast or Brussels wants a hard border.

Obviously no one one wants to be responsible for overegging the problems that could accompany a hard border, but most of the key political players are well aware that it never really takes very much to kick-start 'troubles' of one sort or another when it comes to the 'Irish' question.

So far it has all been very predictable. The DUP got excruciatingly excited when it found itself unexpectedly propping up Mrs May in June 2017 and, making the rather hasty (and soon to be regretted) decision to take her at face value, decided to play the uber-unionist card and ignore both the Irish government and all the parties in Northern Ireland. Now they're stuck with the backstop and desperate to get rid of it.

Sinn Féin - who've never fully explained their 360 degree u-turn from anti to pro on EU membership - are playing the old 'England's misfortune is Ireland's opportunity' card and ending every press statement and interview with the request for a border poll.

Meanwhile, Leo Varadkar - not experienced enough to appreciate that he was only ever a pawn between May and Juncker - got carried away with the notion that he was actually of political significance and stature and overplayed his cards with reckless abandon.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, who has spent the past few weeks denouncing the iniquity of the backstop, seems to be coming around to the idea that a few 'legally binding' changes and a specific time-limit might be enough to swing him and the ERG (which increasingly resembles one of those bizarre and secretive cabals which tend to be at the core of every Dan Brown plot) behind the very Withdrawal Agreement which he and Boris Johnson regularly dismissed as a 'form of vassalage' for the United Kingdom.

Their no is still being stuttered to their core supporters, but you can detect a new touch of nuance (which many of those supporters are too thick to notice). When it gets to the point, as it did on Wednesday, that Rees-Mogg suggests that Parliament should be closed down to stop Remain MPs getting their way (what happened to his belief in Parliamentary sovereignty?) then you really do know he senses he's not winning the argument.

As the deadline looms the final calls have to be made: and made early enough for waverers to be assuaged and brought on board. Most hard line, purist Brexiteers have already accepted they're not getting what they want - so they'll want the next best they can get. In other words, a soft landing is better than no landing at all. For all the talk of not fearing a 'no deal' exit, most of them do fear it. When the likes of James Dyson decide to relocate to Singapore, even non-business Brexiteers get the whiff of coffee in the air and start sniffing.

The hard line, purist Remainers have problems of their own. Even though the Withdrawal Agreement doesn't, in fact, amount to much more than the granny-flat option for the UK, they would still prefer another referendum and the only serious chance they probably have of ending what they describe as the Brexit 'nightmare.'

A number of attempts will be made between now and next Tuesday (when there's another 'meaningful vote' due) to ambush the government and ensure that crucial decisions don't just rest with the prime minister. There is still talk of a general election, but that's only of use to the Remainers if Labour is willing to make the case for a second referendum in its manifesto. That can't be ruled out - nothing can these days - but it still seems unlikely.

So it looks as if we're coming down to the final manoeuvres for both sides: a battle between a soft landing, not-quite-in-not-quite-out solution and a second referendum. Given the closeness of the referendum result; the uselessness of most of the key Leave players; the vacillation of Mrs May; the guerrilla tactics of the Remain parliamentarians; and the hardball from Brussels, it seemed almost inevitable - as I have pointed out a number of times in this column - that we would reach this point.

So can everyone stop getting so pointlessly exercised by how the border problem is resolved? It will be resolved reasonably amicably I suspect. Meanwhile, Mrs May, like an old bear pinned by the ear to the washing line and blowing in the wind, continues to pretend that she has some idea what's she's doing.