Opinion

Jim Gibney: Despite a disappointing vote, Sinn Féin was right to stand in the presidential election

Jim Gibney
Jim Gibney Jim Gibney

Standing Bobby Sands in the Fermanagh/South Tyrone by-election was high risk.

Republicans, especially those living in the constituency, were fearful that if Bobby was not elected and died the people of the area would be blamed and not the British government.

As we now know Bobby’s election was a seminal moment in the struggle for independence.

Standing political prisoner candidates in the 1981 Dáil election was also a huge risk for the same reason.

The election of Kieran Doherty and Paddy Agnew as TDs, fundamentally changed the formation of Irish governments since then until now.

Prior to their election single parties formed the government, usually Fianna Fáil. All governments since have been coalitions.

I sat beside Gerry Adams in a counting room in Belfast City Hall when Sinn Féin lost West Belfast to the SDLP's Joe Hendron.

The result sent shock-waves through the republican movement. Republicans learnt lessons and reclaimed the seat in the next election and held it ever since.

In 2011, Fianna Fáil lost 50 seats in the Dáil. In 2016 the Labour Party lost over 30 seats in the Dáil.

In 2016 the people of the north voted to remain in the EU. Many unionists rejected the DUP’s advice to leave the EU and voted with nationalists to stay.

The following year in the assembly election unionists lost their majority in Stormont for the first time since partition in 1921.

This result has up-ended unionist parties.

All elections, especially at times of significant change, are risky.

Predicting with accuracy their outcome can be a precarious business. The last three trips to the polls in the south reflect this.

No one predicted the scale of popular support for marriage equality and abortion reform.

Before the result declaring Michael D Higgins a winner was safe. He had the support of Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Labour.

No one predicted the very disappointing result for Sinn Féin or the surge of support for Peter Casey.

Michael D was popular, a household name and a life-long campaigner for social and economic justice.

He embodied the progressive society symbolised in the marriage equality and abortion reform referenda.

Sinn Féin was right to stand a candidate for president otherwise on such an important issue the people would have had no say.

Contesting elections is also about protecting your vote; motivating it and preventing it from sitting at home or voting for other parties.

It provided the party with an opportunity to continue to present itself as a radical alternative to Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.

Issues such as partition, a united Ireland and a rights-based equal society were given air time in a way they would not have been had there been no election.

Liadh Ní Ríada was an excellent candidate: a MEP, a Gaelgoir, a musician, her father Seán was a leading figure in the revival of traditional music.

For me the result was not only deeply disappointing it was very surprising.

And the party leadership will learn lessons from it as Mary Lou Mac Donald said, “It would be stupid not to”.

First indications are that the result maybe presidential-election specific. A Red Sea exit poll indicated that 15 per cent of those asked said they would vote Sinn Féin in a general election.

This figure has been persistently reflected in opinion polls for some time.

The presidential election result highlights the extent of the challenge facing Sinn Féin to popularise its appeal.

It is a ‘David versus Goliath’ scenario, with the party competing with Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil and an aggressively hostile media.

Barring a general election, the people of the south will be at the polls next May to elect MEPs, local councillors and vote to change the constitution to allow the people of the north and the Irish diaspora to vote in presidential elections.

Such constitutional change will drive a ‘horse and carriage’ through partition a few years short of its centenary.

It could also energise Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Labour to organise in the north in search of votes for their future presidential candidates.

A nation in waiting. Once again.