Opinion

Allison Morris: DUP should make the most of potentially short lived influence at Westminster

Chancellor Philip Hammond delivering his Budget statement to MPs in the House of Commons.
Chancellor Philip Hammond delivering his Budget statement to MPs in the House of Commons. Chancellor Philip Hammond delivering his Budget statement to MPs in the House of Commons.

WAS there ever any doubt that the DUP would back the Tory budget, despite all the grandstanding that went before?

The DUP/ Tory deal has been manna from heaven for the unionist party, who have never had it so good and were never going to risk losing that advantage to an unpredictable general election.

That Chancellor Philip Hammond mentioned Northern Ireland more than once during Monday’s budget was an indicator that the 10 DUP MPs are still very much needed by the Conservative Party if the Brexit bill is ever to pass through the Commons.

The numbers simply don’t add up otherwise.

The chancellor claimed his budget will mean additional spending of £320m for Northern Ireland government departments.

Mr Hammond also said there would be "larger sums to come" as a result of a forthcoming spending review.

A long-awaited city deal for the Belfast region, which will mean £350m of funding over 15 years, along with a £2m one-off payment to help with the impact of the Primark fire in Belfast city centre was also announced.

I’m going to hazard a guess that the right honorable gentleman for Runnymede and Weybridge doesn’t usually buy his Christmas pyjamas in Primark, and so I must concede that the DUP have put some pressure on the government to dish out a few baubles.

However, experts with much greater fiscal knowledge than I have say despite Northern Ireland getting an extra £44m for day-to-day spending and an additional £31m for capital spending, in real terms the 2019/20 Northern Ireland budget will be flat, as in no change.

Northern Ireland will be the last remaining region to get a city deal - there are already more than 30 across Britain with this in the planning since 2012, and therefore largely unconnected to the Tory/DUP deal.

Although it would be remiss to say that the budget didn’t have more than a hint of DUP influence.

What is also evident is that this is a very precarious political arrangement.

You have to wonder in her quiet moments does Theresa May wish she could transport herself back to April 2017, prior to the announcement of that ill-fated snap general election, the result of which has left her handcuffed to the unionist MPs.

Their influence has clearly damaged the relationship between Britain and the other EU member states as they try and unravel themselves from Europe in complex and sensitive negotiations.

Northern Ireland’s border and any solution put forward to minimise the economic impact of Brexit has been rejected by the DUP, not for economic but for ideological reasons.

They have also shown a lack of loyalty to Theresa May often siding with the hard Brexiters in her party who would quite happily take her job if the right opportunity arose.

These are negotiations hampered by the DUPs worries over their identity in a changing Northern Ireland.

A place that has socially and demographically changed and where their votes are harvested out of fear of the future, rather than confidence in their ability to effectively run a devolved government.

The RHI inquiry, which has now concluded the oral evidence part of the process, was damning for public confidence in future of devolution in Northern Ireland.

It uncovered shoddy work practices, a series of unelected advisors, who wield enormous power in both the DUP and it seems Sinn Féin.

It showed up civil servants, who did not possess the expertise and knowledge to oversee complicated aspects of legislation.

Regardless of what Sir Patrick Coghlin’s team rule, the public's faith in Stormont and power sharing has been damaged, some might say beyond repair.

Future negotiations to restore locally accountable power are unlikely while the much more pressing issue of Brexit remains unresolved.

And even after that, there needs to be changes made to the accountability and resilience of an assembly that was not delivering for the people who live here.

That it survived as long as it did is surprising, that any party would go back to an administration that was at worst corrupt and at best incompetent, without first demanding major change, should concern the electorate.

In the mean time the DUP will continue to bask in the warmth of a situation at Westminster, not of their making but clearly to their benefit.

And they should make hay while the sun shines, for while no one would want to take over the leadership of a country heading towards a no deal Brexit, there are those in the wings waiting to occupy number 10 as soon as the heavy lifting is over.

The DUP must know that once their votes are no longer needed, Northern Ireland will once again be the Cinderella sister in an increasingly divided, United Kingdom.