Opinion

Newton Emerson: Still time to de-dramatise a Brexit sea border

Ian Paisley avoided the sack as MP for North Antrim by the seat of his pants
Ian Paisley avoided the sack as MP for North Antrim by the seat of his pants Ian Paisley avoided the sack as MP for North Antrim by the seat of his pants

AS Brexit brinkmanship enters what is hopefully its final stage, finding ways to describe a sea border that will not cause a unionist freak-out has become the most important semantic puzzle in the EU's 24 official languages.

European Commission chief negotiator Michel Barnier, in his latest attempt to "de-dramatise the backstop", has cited the Canary Islands and the rest of Spain as an example of a painless technological sea border within a nation state - and of course, Spain is highly sensitive about its territorial integrity.

The Canaries are in the EU but outside its VAT and customs areas, generating significant paperwork, most of which is processed in transit.

This has worked well for decades. However, the rise of online shopping has begun exposing consumers directly to the system's inevitable shortcomings, causing frustration to residents and disputes between nationalist and unionist parties in the devolved parliament, with nationalists denouncing parcel delays and price differences as "discrimination".

Upon such unexpected quarrels may our fate depend.

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It is a case of bad winners and sore losers in the North Antrim recall petition.

While Ian Paisley was understandably delighted to avoid a by-election, it was grotesque of him to treat it as a victory - his statement of thanks to "the electorate" ended with "hallelujah".

He has even claimed the endorsement of all 90.6 per cent of non-signatories. There is quite a difference between retaining your seat at the polls and avoiding the sack by the seat of your pants.

Sinn Féin launched an attack on the Electoral Office before the polls had closed and after making a last minute online appeal to voters, with what turned out to be an accurate prediction of a "knife edge" result.

This has left the party open to a police investigation - it is an offence to publish predictions or estimates based on any knowledge of who has signed.

If the Electoral Office faces any censure, it might be for making polling stations too accessible to party observers.

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Much criticism of how the recall petition was conducted has been based on unfavourable comparisons with a conventional election.

Although polls were open for six weeks and postal ballots were available on demand, people still expected numerous polling stations with late opening hours.

As the first ever recall ballot held in the UK, lessons are presumably being drawn.

The most obvious is that petitions should become more like conventional elections.

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The PSNI is normally keen to publicise its work against human trafficking, so it is oddly reticent about alleged exploitation of Roma people in south Belfast.

Last month, after accusations were published by loyalist blogger Jamie Bryson, the PSNI said it was not investigating anything, then a week later said it was investigating but had received no reports or complaints.

The Irish News has now obtained documents showing Belfast Health Trust reported serious complaints to the PSNI in May.

One email refers to a meeting scheduled with the PSNI's human trafficking unit.

Green Party MLA Clare Bailey says she also made complaints to the PSNI "months ago".

Officers did find time in August to arrest Bryson for questioning on unrelated matters.

Police were so keen to publicise this, the chief constable tweeted about it.

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Westminster's Migration Advisory Committee has come out against a separate post-Brexit immigration system for Northern Ireland, as sought by the agrifood and hospitality industries and occasionally considered at Stormont.

This has profound implications. Employers here had wanted continued access to low-cost labour from abroad but the Committee says the whole UK, including Northern Ireland, should favour only high-skilled immigrants.

Sectors short of labour should raise wages and invest for productivity instead.

In other words: we go back to strangling our own chickens or install machines to do it for us.

This is not a bad prescription for tackling economic exclusion and low productivity.

The question is whether Northern Ireland can ever be a competitive high-wage economy.

We could just end up with no jobs and no chicken.

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The field of economic reports on a united Ireland, long dominated by sympathetic studies, has an unsupportive new entry.

Research by Trinity College Dublin and Dublin City University has concluded taking on Northern Ireland's annual £10 billion subvention would "permanently" reduce living standards in the Republic by 15 per cent.

The fault of previous studies has been wishing the subvention away but it is equally flawed to describe any economic level as permanent.

As the economist John Maynard Keynes said: "In the long run we are all dead."

Or as former Brexit secretary David Davis told the Huffington Post this week: "Everybody thinks 15-year economic forecasts are bollocks."

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SDLP MLA Pat Catney has expressed mystification after his Lisburn constituency office was picketed by far-right group Britain First, including its UK leader Paul Golding, who stood behind a party banner holding up a cross.

In fact, there was no specific reason for targeting Catney.

Britain First was holding a "day of action" in Lisburn to show it is "relentlessly active", according to a subsequent party statement - and the SDLP office is the only place in the town centre where Britain is clearly not first.

newton@irishnews.com