Opinion

Brian Feeney: Sinn Féin contesting presidential election is a brilliant political move

Brian Feeney

Brian Feeney

Historian and political commentator Brian Feeney has been a columnist with The Irish News for three decades. He is a former SDLP councillor in Belfast and co-author of the award-winning book Lost Lives

Brian Feeney
Brian Feeney Brian Feeney

Many observers in the south see Sinn Féin’s decision to contest the presidential election in the autumn as a brilliant political stroke.

The decision of the two main parties, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, not to nominate a candidate wasn’t for altruistic reasons.

Neither believed they had a candidate who could beat President Higgins and besides, both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil want to concentrate on preparing for the next general election. That left the field open for Sinn Féin. Oops.

Last time in 2011 Fianna Fáil was in a desperate state after the financial crash and didn’t have a credible figure to put up so they stood aside after much Micheál Martin dithering. Fine Gael put up an unknown and got stuffed, receiving a miserable 6.4 per cent of the vote. Michael D Higgins, the Labour party candidate, struck the right tone in the economic crisis after decades in left wing politics and romped home with 40 per cent of first preference votes.

Sinn Féin seized the opportunity to present themselves to the whole of the Republic’s electorate and thereby attract huge publicity. Martin McGuinness stood aside as deputy first minister to campaign and to many people’s surprise pulled in 13.7 per cent of the vote, a figure which Sinn Féin repeated at the 2016 general election. Can Sinn Féin use this presidential election to boost the party’s profile in the south with an eye to the imminent general election likely in the new year?

Various other Independent candidates have been testing the water but none will have a party machine and party finance behind them. Some, like barrister and Irish Times columnist Noel Whelan, might be viewed as surrogates for one of the other parties. Whelan in the past unsuccessfully contested a Dáil seat for Fianna Fáil. However if any of the Independents receives financial support from a political party that will be added to their campaign costs and if you don’t get a quarter of a quota you have to pay the lot. A Sinn Féin candidate will easily qualify for public financial support up to €200,000 so the campaign will cost SF virtually nothing if they are judicious in their spending.

The big question is, who will be Sinn Féin’s candidate? The party’s selection committee under David Cullinane TD will report next week. On Monday Paddy Power suspended betting on the likely candidate after a huge run of support for John Finucane. However he’s by no means a shoo-in. Many in the party support MEP Liadh Ní Riada because she’s a proven vote winner, a woman and she’s from the south.

However you need to remember that no one, including Sinn Féin’s leadership, believes President Higgins can be beaten so Sinn Féin isn’t running a candidate to win but to increase the party’s national profile with an eye on the next election. In the case of Finucane the next election is the British general election. Dramatically raising his political profile will greatly enhance his chances of unseating the DUP’s Nigel Dodds in north Belfast, an MP heartily loathed in republican circles, not least for his past participation in provocative Orange marches past Ardoyne.

TV debates in the campaign are an attraction for Sinn Féin strategists because a presidential campaign is not about debating government policy since the president is above party political arguments and has no role in policy. As a result candidates can raise issues like Irish unity, Brexit, human rights in the north or the role of women without needing to get bogged down in the minutiae of southern politics where someone like Finucane could be at a disadvantage.

In many ways it’s free publicity for Sinn Féin, something which certainly concerns Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. There’s nothing to stop Sinn Féin putting up posters in every constituency with ‘Vote Sinn Féin 1’ plastered on everything vertical along the roads. On the other hand, if either of the two main parties gives their tacit support to an Independent and the Independent loses badly so does the party that gave support.

So far both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are supporting Higgins but they won’t have anyone in the TV debates and Sinn Féin will. It’s a penalty kick offered to Mary Lou.