Opinion

Patrick Murphy: Varadkar has a decision to make on what will be a pivotal election

Patrick Murphy

Patrick Murphy

Patrick Murphy is an Irish News columnist and former director of Belfast Institute for Further and Higher Education.

Patrick Murphy
Patrick Murphy Patrick Murphy

Should Leo Varadkar call a general election on the issue of Brexit? Fresh from his northern excursion and riding high in the opinion polls in the south, the taoiseach has to decide soon whether to announce an election date after next week's EU summit, or wait until the autumn, or even next spring.

Whatever he decides, the next general election in the south will be among the most pivotal in modern Irish history. It will determine not only Varadkar's political future, it will also define Fianna Fáil leader, Micheal Martin's political career and clarify his party's likelihood of returning to government in the foreseeable future

It will also shape Sinn Féin's chances of entering government in Dublin and that in turn will decide Stormont's future. Perhaps most importantly, it will influence the style and content of Anglo-Irish relations in post-Brexit Ireland. Welcome to what promises to be a serious outbreak of history.

Varadkar has three good reasons for not holding an election soon: Cameron, Kenny and May. Inspired by misleading opinion polls, all three misread the mood of the electorate and then adopted the wrong campaign message.

For example, Kenny opted for, "Let's keep the recovery going." But most of the electorate had seen few signs of economic recovery, thereby handing an additional 25 seats to Fianna Fáil for its fairness agenda ("An Ireland for All").

Micheal Martin always had a better sense of the public mood than Kenny, but he will meet his match in Leo Varadkar who, after a year in office, has shown a Blair-like ability to judge public opinion and be all things to all people. Some even see him as a sort of John F Kennedy - young, dynamic and both reflecting and projecting a new era not just in politics, but in society.

But he has yet to be tested in a crisis. If he goes to the polls soon, he will avoid one. But, the longer he leaves it, the more likely he is to make a mistake.

As someone once said, if you stay in a job long enough, you either get canonised or found out, which is why FF is in no hurry to bring the government down. The longer Varadkar remains in office, the greater the risk that he will be exposed as adopting Mrs Thatcher's technique of using nationalism to deflect from austerity. Anyway, politicians tend not to be canonised in Ireland.

He has two good reasons for announcing an election following next week's EU summit. The first is that if Britain agrees to a soft border, he can claim much of the credit. If they insist on a hard border, he can exploit the sense of national indignation.

The problem, however, is that although either result will gain him support, it will also help SF and FF. That's the point about holding an election on Brexit - there is no opposition to the government's policy of a soft border. A Brexit-based election will then be decided on issues other than Brexit.

That's where Sinn Féin comes in. Its U-turn on EU membership has given it the zeal of the convert in opposing Brexit in the north, but it has been outflanked by Leo's anti-Brexit rhetoric in the south. Last week-end's ard fheis did little to enhance the party's southern electoral prospects. It essentially offered the party for sale to the highest bidder - hardly the most principled political stance.

Mary Lou's address was devoid of content and poor in delivery. In a different era it might have been written by de Valera, as she pointed out the need to build more schools and hospitals for a modern Ireland, where there will be shared prosperity (an interesting concept under capitalism).

She stopped just short of depicting comely maidens dancing at the cross roads, but if that was the launch of SF's southern election campaign, the party has much to learn from Varadkar about reading the public mood. If they do not make it into government in Dublin, Stormont will not return for some time.

Although Michelle O'Neill's speech focused almost exclusively on the north, hers was a more passionate explanation of party policy. She also praised the IRA dead, a point which Mary Lou conveniently overlooked, presumably because Leo might not like it. Sinn Féin's two nations approach now seems to have been extended to creating two Sinn Féins.

So we may be about to witness history in the making. The only question for ordinary people is whether this new history will be any improvement on what they have had up to now. History shows that it will probably not.