Opinion

Patrick Murphy: Outcome of Tory civil war will determine post-Brexit border

Patrick Murphy

Patrick Murphy

Patrick Murphy is an Irish News columnist and former director of Belfast Institute for Further and Higher Education.

Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg has said Brexit will not threaten peace. Picture by Jonathan Brady, Press Association
Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg has said Brexit will not threaten peace. Picture by Jonathan Brady, Press Association Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg has said Brexit will not threaten peace. Picture by Jonathan Brady, Press Association

Not for the first time, Ireland's fate depends on the outcome of an English civil war.

Almost four hundred years after English republicans beheaded the king, Irish republicans (and in the context of Brexit, that includes Fine Gael) are waiting to see if Theresa May can hold her head and take Britain out of the EU common customs area.

If she does, it will mean either a hard post-Brexit border in Ireland, or some form of economic distinction between the north and the rest of the UK to accommodate a soft border.

To leave the common customs area, Mrs May must win the civil war currently raging in her party, in parliament and across the country. Its outcome will effectively decide the nature of our post-Brexit border and the north's economic relationship with the rest of Ireland and the UK.

So what exactly is this new civil war all about, who is likely to win and can we in Ireland do anything to influence its outcome?

Although Mrs May's war is apparently about economics, the real division in her Tory party is about the global role of post-imperial Britain. (The division at a national level is fuelled by growing social and economic inequality.)

Leading the charge for a complete break with the EU is Jacob Rees Mogg, a Latin-speaking Catholic (and there are not many of those left) who believes that the 18th century was Britain's finest hour.

His supporters, including three cabinet ministers, seek to re-shape the Commonwealth into a new economic empire, as an alternative to the EU. That would re-establish Britain as a world power, an idea described by the Washington Post as "Britain's delusions of empire".

The new empire would end the EU's influence over Britain, which the late Lord Denning (a man admired by Rees Mogg) once described as an incoming tide, which cannot be held back, sweeping up Britain's estuaries and rivers. (That is the same Lord Denning who said that it would be an "appalling vista" if British police were found to be lying about the Birmingham Six. They were and it was.)

The majority of Tory MPs, however, would settle for a softer Brexit, on the basis that economic reality should take precedence over historical nostalgia. That leaves Mrs May at odds with most of her parliamentary colleagues, which is a weak position since she has a parliamentary majority of only 13 MPs, including the DUP 10.

That majority could be significantly weakened if Sinn Féin's seven MPs were to attend Westminster.

Abstention was originally indicative of republicans' refusal to recognise the legitimacy of the three parliaments in Dublin, London or Belfast, but SF has long since abandoned that principle.

These days it offers two reasons for abstention. One is that sitting on Westminster's half-empty benches would be a waste of time (although Stormont's were never crowded.) The other is that those voting for them knew they would not attend, which is an interesting interpretation of logic.

If they took their seats, they could possibly bring down Mrs May's government. But they do not appear to have even considered that option and Leo Varadkar is putting no pressure on them to change their minds.

So what keeps SF (and Fine Gael) from trying to influence the outcome of the English civil war? The reason may have been identified by Fianna Fáil leader, Micheál Martin, one of Ireland's most astute political observers.

He has pointed out that SF is relegating the significance of Brexit to focus instead on weakening the north's link with Britain. So if Sinn Féin stays out of the English civil war, it is difficult to see how Mrs May can deliver her promised seamless border without distancing the north's from Britain by conceding all-Ireland co-operation in a number of areas, including transport, health, higher education and broadcasting.

The Irish backed the losing side in the first civil war by supporting the king. Cromwell, the victor, got more than his own back against the Irish when the war ended. This time they are staying neutral, not because they fear Karen Bradley might arrive one day and send us all to hell or Connacht, but because they see Mrs May's departure from the common customs area as a possible step towards an economically united Ireland.

So, SF now has a good political reason for not attending Westminster - although more by accident than design. Like the Dublin government, their attitude towards England's civil war appears to be to do nothing for a long time - and then do nothing. So far it appears to be working.