Opinion

Brian Feeney: Leo's not playing for northern nationalists

Brian Feeney

Brian Feeney

Historian and political commentator Brian Feeney has been a columnist with The Irish News for three decades. He is a former SDLP councillor in Belfast and co-author of the award-winning book Lost Lives

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar's interest in the north has nothing to do with northern nationalists and everything to do with keeping Fine Gael in government - and securing Sinn Féin transfers in the next election
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar's interest in the north has nothing to do with northern nationalists and everything to do with keeping Fine Gael in government - and securing Sinn Féin transfers in the next election Taoiseach Leo Varadkar's interest in the north has nothing to do with northern nationalists and everything to do with keeping Fine Gael in government - and securing Sinn Féin transfers in the next election

IN December after Leo Varadkar pronounced himself mighty pleased with the deal on the border that the EU had wrung out of the British he came out with this declaration: "To the nationalist people of Northern Ireland I want to assure you that we have protected your interests throughout these negotiations and will continue to do so and you will never again be left behind by an Irish government."

Two days later the British government publicly ratted on the deal and they've been rowing away from it ever since.

British duplicity isn't the point here. We'll see in the coming months how successfully they squirm around the legalities.

No, let's look at Varadkar's pronouncement, which you might find touching.

Or on the other hand, coming from a Fine Gael-led government which has done nothing for northern nationalists for six years except exhibit hostility towards their political representatives, you might find his remarks to be what they call in diplomatic parlance a bit of a démarche - in normal language, a manoeuvre.

Under Enda Kenny, who never evinced the slightest interest in the north, we had ministers responsible for this place who differed only in their antagonism towards Sinn Féin, one a former Stickie, the other from the law and order right of Fine Gael.

They stood idly by as the Conservative-led governments since 2010 cleaved ever closer to the DUP, indulging their merest whims, and by 2017 were displaying overt support for the raving right of the Tory party in security and legacy matters here.

It was a new experience for northern nationalists who had been used for over 20 years to the unequivocal support of Irish governments and an identity of policy.

The reasons are obvious and have been outlined here before. John Hume had made his party, in effect, the Irish government in the north, pursuing and promoting its policies.

However, by the beginning of this decade not only was Sinn Féin overwhelmingly the choice of northern nationalists, whose votes had made Martin McGuinness deputy First Minister, but they won 220,661 votes and 14 seats in the 2011 Dáil. By 2016 that became 295,319 and 23 seats, making them a political threat in the south.

Consequently from 2010 northern nationalists found themselves bereft of political influence in both Westminster and Dublin.

They watched in dismay as David Cameron's precarious coalition courted the DUP, even throwing a party for them in the Downing Street garden.

They watched in alarm as every northern issue Sinn Féin raised in the Dáil was batted away derisively by Enda Kenny and in Stormont talks his minister Charlie Flanagan adopted a position indistinguishable from the British when he wasn't completely disengaged.

Disenchantment grew as the DUP, with British connivance and Irish complicity, blocked everything in the assembly and in talks on flags, Orange marches, the past, the present, the future.

Sinn Féin could not provide any political leverage for northern nationalists. They faced undisguised hostility in London and Dublin.

Now, since December it appears the Taoiseach has pulled on a green jersey. He met Sinn Féin on December 18 and later agreed with them that calling a British-Irish Inter-Governmental Council is a good idea.

He actually answered questions from Gerry Adams. He said Barry McElduff's stupid stunt was "perhaps an error of judgment".

He told the DUP they don't represent a majority in the north on Brexit, producing predictable apoplexy from poor Sammy Wilson. Not to be outdone, Simon Coveney hoped for a united Ireland.

What's going on? Will Mary Lou McDonald's Sinn Féin at last be able to exert the sort of political leverage that John Hume exercised?

Don't hold your breath. Varadkar has noticed that polls show 22 per cent of people are more likely to vote Sinn Féin with Mary Lou as leader.

Varadkar has also enjoyed a huge boost in his poll ratings, not unrelated to his confrontation with the British.

Unlike beleaguered Micheál Martin he is not competing with Sinn Féin for votes. What Varadkar's aiming to do is keep those Fianna Fáil voters who switched to Fine Gael in 2011.

He's also hoping for Sinn Féin transfers in the next election in 2019. His manoeuvre has nothing to do with the northern nationalists.