Opinion

Alex Kane: If it wasn't for RHI would Sinn Féin still be in Stormont?

Alex Kane

Alex Kane

Alex Kane is an Irish News columnist and political commentator and a former director of communications for the Ulster Unionist Party.

Martin McGuinness resigned from Stormont over RHI. Picture Mal McCann
Martin McGuinness resigned from Stormont over RHI. Picture Mal McCann Martin McGuinness resigned from Stormont over RHI. Picture Mal McCann

I like the ‘What If’ moments in politics. For example, what if BBC Spotlight hadn’t run the RHI story in December 2016?

And the reason I’m asking is because in the previous eleven months the DUP and Sinn Féin claimed to be having their best ever relationship. In May they had formed an executive with just themselves and Claire Sugden—happily mocking the other parties for taking the ‘easy option’ of opposition.

On November 21 Arlene Foster and Martin McGuinness signed off on a joint article to mark the first six months of that executive: ''Day by day, slowly but surely, politics here is changing. And it’s for the better. The focus is increasingly now on policies and delivery - on finding the best ways to make people’s lives better. The seeds of this change can be found in the Fresh Start Agreement a year ago and the Assembly election some six months later. Our two parties - along with Claire Sugden as Justice Minister – are now in an Executive facing in the same direction. This is what delivery looks like. No gimmicks. No grandstanding. Just Ministers getting on with the work.''

In other words, before the RHI story broke both the DUP and Sinn Féin were peddling the line that all was well and that they could work together. Not a word from Sinn Féin about the DUP’s ‘breaking’ of pledges; not a word about the importance of a standalone Irish language act; not a word about the DUP’s lack of commitment to the Good Friday Agreement; not a word about the DUP’s opposition to the equality agenda; not a word about red lines. We heard none of this until Martin McGuinness’s resignation letter on January 9, 2017. So, are we to assume that if it hadn’t been for RHI Sinn Féin would have been perfectly content to prop up the executive for another four years?

When I’ve asked some Sinn Féin sources why McGuinness signed off on the joint article with the DUP when it was clear that he didn’t seem to trust them to deliver, their response is that he was, 'giving the DUP one more chance to prove they could change. Arlene’s arrogant response to RHI was proof that they wouldn’t change.'

Yet that response strikes me as trickery. The joint article was intended to convey the impression—to the media and general public—that the DUP and Sinn Féin were sincere in their efforts and honest in their public statements. We now know that they weren’t. We now know that they were knee deep in mutual loathing.

All of which explains why the present crisis is now into its second year. The two parties do not trust each other: and when there is no basic trust there can be no credible solutions to problems. The best they can ever hope for is the sort of fudge which allows them to reboot the institutions and give the impression that they are making a decent fist of addressing and resolving hospital waiting lists, pot holes, schools running out of money, reconciliation, legacy and a host of ethical issues. And it is just an impression, of course, because most of the problems we face were unaddressed and unresolved between 2007 and 2016.

Meanwhile, there is growing chitter chatter about addressing the ‘big ticket’ issues by way of a Citizens’ Assembly, as happens in the south. The idea is that you have 99 citizens, randomly selected, ‘to be broadly representative of the Irish electorate, established to consider some of the most important issues facing Ireland’s future.’ It sounds ok in theory, but I’m not sure how it would work in Northern Ireland, where many of the randomly selected citizens would disagree on whether they were actually British or Irish citizens.

Nor am I persuaded that a Citizens’ Assembly can work in the absence of a reasonably stable, functioning government here. It wouldn’t have a mandate anyway, but nor would its remit be established by and reporting to a government in Northern Ireland. And since we’re trapped in conflict stalemate—rather than conflict solution—and don’t agree on the constitutional future of Northern Ireland, I think a Citizens’ Assembly would find itself in exactly the same mess as the Civic Forum and organisations like Platform for Change and Democratic Dialogue.

The latest round of talks began on Wednesday. I can barely contain my excitement. Karen Bradley has abandoned deadlines in favour of milestones; although I’m pretty sure a milestone just tells you how far you are from your destination.