Opinion

Claire Simpson: Not holding my breath for a talks breakthrough

Secretary Karen Bradley and Irish foreign affairs minister Simon Coveney speaking to the media at Stormont. Picture by Brian Lawless/PA Wire
Secretary Karen Bradley and Irish foreign affairs minister Simon Coveney speaking to the media at Stormont. Picture by Brian Lawless/PA Wire Secretary Karen Bradley and Irish foreign affairs minister Simon Coveney speaking to the media at Stormont. Picture by Brian Lawless/PA Wire

And so it begins. Intensive talks aimed at resolving the impossible – the restoration of power-sharing between two parties who show no signs of seriously wanting to reconcile their differences.

Sinn Féin have already warned they are only going to commit to a two-week process, while the DUP have warned that republicans need to approach the negotiations with 'realism' – code for ‘we aren’t going to allow a standalone Irish language act no matter how often you ask’.

Some viewers may have felt vaguely hopeful following a remarkably civil discussion between Sinn Féin’s John O’Dowd and the DUP’s Edwin Poots on BBC Northern Ireland’s The View earlier this month. In the wake of the row over his colleague Barry McElduff’s controversial Kingsmill social media post, Mr O’Dowd’s condemnation of the 1976 massacre as “shameful” and sectarian seemed heartfelt and sincere, particularly since the killings happened the day after one of his uncles and two cousins were shot dead by the loyalist Glennane gang.

Mr Poots’s insistence that his party will work with Sinn Féin despite any reservations from DUP voters also provided some hope.

Yet a respectful conversation between two individual politicians has not translated into a rapprochement between their parties. And Sinn Féin and the DUP’s mistrust of the British and Irish governments respectively has not been softened by either the appointment of new secretary of state Karen Bradley or DUP MP Sammy Wilson’s ‘nutcase’ jibe at Taoiseach Leo Varadkar over the Brexit negotiations. Mr Wilson later said that “upon reflection” he regretted “my choice of language” but given that he has previously described Mr Varadkar and foreign affairs minister Simon Coveney’s approach to the north as “cynical, aggressive, green (and) partisan” no one should expect the DUP to wholeheartedly work with Mr Coveney during the talks.

Previous landmark agreements were secured partly through the efforts of high-profile and charismatic secretaries of state including Mo Mowlam and Peter Hain. Unfortunately the days when a ministerial job at the Northern Ireland Office held a certain amount of prestige are long gone. Now the question of any new appointee is: ‘What did they do to annoy the Prime Minister?’.

Mrs Bradley, rather like her predecessor James Brokenshire, seems keen enough, if dispiritingly bland. Shortly after the new secretary of state gave her first press conference in the north, some Twitter users described her as looking like a low-ranking detective in a Nordic crime drama who’s been forced to tell the media that a third dead body has been found in the town’s harbour.

Perhaps aware that her appointment was greeted with general indifference, a government source was keen to emphasise her credentials, claiming she had taken to her new post like a “duck to water” and had been “hoovering up” briefings. The latter description sounded vaguely alarming, as if Noo-Noo the vacuum cleaner from nineties children’s classic the Teletubbies had become self-aware and had somehow been elected as a Conservative MP for Staffordshire Moorlands. I suppose Noo-Noo was known for cleaning up the Teletubbies’ mess – something Mrs Bradley is unlikely to be able to do given her party is heavily reliant on the DUP to clean up its own mess in Parliament.

Mrs Bradley at least seemed to have a positive approach at last week’s announcement of renewed talks, insisting she will not contemplate anything other than a full restoration of the Stormont executive. It was a brave stance considering the British government has surely been planning the inevitable return of direct rule for months. The head of the north’s civil service, David Sterling, has already warned that unless his staff are given clarity over their possible budgets by the beginning of next month then they will not be able to plan ahead.

It would not be beyond the realm of possibility that a two-week talks process is merely paving the way for rule from Westminster, whether nationalists and the Irish government like it or not. Surely Theresa May would not have purposely chosen a relatively inexperienced politician for such a key role in crunch negotiations? Surely she would not be trying to punish Mr Varadkar and Mr Coveney for standing up to the British government, and by extension the DUP, during the Brexit negotiations?

Expect the next fortnight to include reports of talks stretching late into the night, rumours of unexpected compromises and suggestions that the parties are within a hair’s breadth of reaching agreement.

Then expect all hopes to be dashed.